What Could Have Been- The Legend of Arvydas Sabonis

Quick- name the most skilled and talented big men in basketball history. Instantly names like Hakeem, Kareem, Wilt and Shaq come to mind. Maybe even Dirk, KG, Tim Duncan, or David Robinson. Now, what if I told you the most skilled big man ever might just be missing from that list. Now, you're searching your brain banks trying to figure out who could possibly be better than these legends of the game. Finally, your brain lands on the name Arvydas Sabonis (pronounced ar-VEE-das). Perhaps you recall his NBA stats (12 points, 7.3 rebounds and 2.3 assists career) and think, what could possibly give this guy a chance against those greats we just mentioned? He played for only seven seasons over eight years, and never had as much as one single 20/10 season. Here you are, staring at your screen wondering what the heck I must be smoking to think this guy might be better than someone like David Robinson. I tell you, however, that in order to truly understand the legend of Arvydas Sabonis, you have to go back. I mean way, way back.

Let's begin this odyssey in 1981. Sabonis was 17, and playing in the European Championship for Cadets. His Soviet Union team went undefeated, winning all seven games by a combined margin of 241 points. Young Sabonis averaged 17 points per game, but unfortunately we have no records of rebounds, assists or blocks until years later. Plus, unless you happened to have been watching in person in 1981, we really have very little good video of a young, healthy Sabonis. We have some grainy and undated film of Sabonis looking like a young, athletic center with dark Larry Bird hair shooting one of four shots- a three off the catch, a turnaround midrange jumper, a practically un-blockable sky hook, or a monster dunk. We can gather a few things from this film, one being he wasn't always the slow and pudgy guy that hobbled around the court in a Portland uniform in the late nineties. He was once a super athlete, with a pair of quick feet to go along with his incredible size and bodybuilder strength.

Let's move forward to our next spot on the timeline (big thanks to chile2011.fiba.com for this). It's now the 1983 World Championship for Junior Men, and an 18.5 year old Sabonis is the Soviet Union's undoubted star. He leads the team in scoring with 18.5 points per game, and averages 23.5 points per game against the eventual champion United States (the Soviets finished second against a USA team that featured Kenny Walker and Larry Krystkowiak). Well okay, you say, but that's for Junior Men. What could he do against real men? Let's take a look at the 1983 European Championship for Men. Sabonis again led his team in scoring with 17.7 per game, despite being the youngest player on the Soviet Union's roster by five to ten years. Also keep in mind that Sabonis' field goal percentage hasn't dipped below 60% even once. In Sabonis' final game of the tournament, he scored 28 points on 10/12 shooting from the field. He was completely dominant in European play, despite being so young playing against older, more experienced veterans.

Sabonis and his Soviet team continued to be a force to be reckoned with, bowling through the 1984 European Olympic Qualifying Tournament and 1985 European Championship for men, winning both while scoring an average of 15.3 and 20.1 points per game, respectively. Now, 1985 is an extremely interesting year in the story of Arvydas. The Atlanta Hawks were considered one of the teams at the forefront of the international athlete boom, and decided to take a crazy risk and reach blindly behind the iron curtain attempting to snag Sabonis. According to Stan Kasten (courtesy of sports.vice.com),  "Sabonis was widely regarded as the greatest basketball player in the world at that time." Okay, hold up. After reading and processing the implications of this (considering this is 1985 and guys like MJ, Kareem, Magic, Bird, Hakeem, Dr. J, Isiah Thomas, and Moses Malone were all active in the NBA), you may question just how honest was Los Angeles Dodgers CEO (and former Hawks GM) Stan Kasten being when he said "greatest...in the world". If you say maybe he was just talking about centers, I will direct you towards Kareem, Hakeem, Moses Malone, and Robert Parish, who were all technically "in the world" at the time. Okay, you say, maybe he was just talking about that draft class. If that were true, his statement would still include guys like Patrick Ewing, Karl Malone and Chris Mullin. So clearly, regardless of whatever stipulations are put on Kasten's statement, it's still an obvious compliment from someone who really knows sports and a good young athlete. Now, this is Sabonis' first chance to come to America and play in the NBA. Unfortunatly, he wasn't quite 21 yet (in those days the old rule about having to be of the most recent college graduating class or older was still hanging on), and since he was unlucky enough to share his draft year with the arrival of the legendary (expletive) David Stern, his choice was voided. Atlanta honestly didn't know Sabonis wasn't 21 yet, and it deferred the drafting of Sabonis another year. Imagine if Sabonis had been allowed to come to Atlanta in 1985, the kind of team they would have had. A 26 year old Dominique Wilkins (who was already scoring 30 points per game at the time), a rookie Spud Webb, a 24 year old Doc Rivers,  a 23 year old Kevin Willis, and Sabonis, all maturing together. The Hawks had won 50 games in 1985, despite their best shooter (Randy Wittman) making only five threes on the year. Wilkins was shooting .186 from long range, and not one player on that team averaged at least one three point attempt per game. If Sabonis comes over at almost 21, he's instantly the team's best shooter. Any team that can win 50 games without much experience or shooting ability (and 57 the next year with only one player shooting over 30% from long range) would have been instant title contenders if they added a skilled and experienced (but still young) Arvydas Sabonis. But, they didn't, so let's not harp on that for too much longer.

Sabonis averaged 15.3 points in the 1986 World Championship for Men, and topped that average in the final against the United States by scoring 16 in a duel with David Robinson (the Soviets actually lost that one, which wasn't a familiar feeling for Sabonis). This was the last event Sabonis played at near 100% (he had been hurt before, but nothing career threatening). While running up the stairs to answer the phone (thank you nytimes.com for this little detail), he ruptured his Achilles tendon. The return to "routine activities" usually takes 4-6 months (clearly, however, being Arvydas Sabonis was far from routine". He rehabbed the injury in Portland, who had drafted him in the first round in 1986 and crossed their fingers that they could wrestle him away from the Soviet Union, but he was rushed back into action after only 2-3 months. And not just any action. He was rushed back into the Seoul Olympics in 1988. He still managed to average 13.3 points, 11.1 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game (this is the first event in which we have more detailed stats), and led his team to a Gold (knocking out the USA and Yugoslavia in the process). While he was third on the team in scoring, he was probably the most important player on the team, as his 13/11/2 line was (to me, anyway) more powerful than an 18/2/2 line (held by Raimondas Marciulionis, the team's leading scorer). He wasn't just the leader of his team, he was also (apparently) the life of the party. The ever fun Sabonis supposedly got into a drinking contest somewhere in the Olympic Village, and was, (cough, cough) "unavailable" for the gold medal ceremony (his request after his first two a day practice with Portland many years later consisted of one word: beer).

Sabonis averaged 16.4 points in the 1989 European Championship for Men (again, we go back to having no other stats), but he was a very limited version of his early eighties dominant self that shattered backboards like Shaq (if you don't believe me, look it up). The USSR ground him (and his legs) to a pulp, and it left him a shadow of the all-powerful giant he once was. Just because he was a shadow, however, didn't mean he couldn't still go out and play like one of the best. He averaged 23.3 points, 13.5 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1 steal, and 3.6 blocks per game for Forum Valladolid of the Liga ACB in Spain in 1989-90, while shooting over 40% from three point range. Keep in mind, Sabonis has the foot speed of Frankenstein by now with all of his overuse leg injuries (and unfortunately, cut his legendary mullet). By the time the 1992 Olympics rolled around, the Soviet Union had fallen and Sabonis was set to be the star player for the Lithuanian National Team. He was once again on the top of his team's scoring list, with a stud-like average of 23.9/12.5/1.8. Somehow, despite being ravaged by injuries, Sabonis was still able to be a dominant international force. He led the Lithuanians to a bronze finish in both the 1992 and 1996 Olympics, with perhaps his greatest international performance ever in the 1995 European Championship for Men, where he averaged 22.3 points, 13.3 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game. Also, his Liga ACB stardom has been running concurrently with these tournaments (he finished his 6 year career there with averages over 20 points, 12 rebounds and 2 assists per game).

Let's go right to the 1995-96 NBA season, the one that finally saw the "debut" of "rookie" Arvydas Sabonis (a laughable moniker for a guy as weathered as him). Sabonis did exactly what was expected of him as a 30 year old rookie. Play around 24 minutes off the bench, average about 15/8/2, and be a veteran presence (and oh, I almost forgot, shoot 37.5% from long range at 7'3.5"). He actually averaged over 23 points per game in the 95-96 playoffs for Portland. Sabonis was inexplicably exciting to watch for someone who ran like he was trying to keep his legs from imploding (mostly because he was). His passes were so flashy, always going around his head, behind his back, and NEVER looking at who he was passing to. He could still throw down some dunks as well, with a legendary reverse jam that looked like a flashback to that grainy, Russian narrated film from the eighties (except this was grainy, Bill Walton narrated film from the nineties). His best season in the NBA came in 1997-98, where he finished with a line of 16/10/3 and made 73 starts for Portland. He also finished his career with a Win Shares per 48 minutes of .200, which is equal to that of Wilt Chamberlain (basketball-reference.com).

Arvydas Sabonis continued to suit up for various teams (including one he owned) after his NBA retirement in 2003. He actually had some pretty good seasons. But, he eventually hung it up for good, leaving behind the ever rare "what could have been" Hall of Fame legacy. When you are a Hall of Famer, usually you "hit all of your lights" so to speak, and realized your full potential. Sabonis is in the Hall of Fame because he deserves it. He is a legend in the game of basketball. But, we will never really know just how high on the list of greatest big men in NBA history he would have gotten. I personally think he could have been one of the greatest of all time. But, this article is about him being the most skilled big ever. Brian Mazique (@UniqueMazique) said "[Sabonis] would've been an all-time great in the NBA had he arrived in his 20s," and "he was the greatest passing big man I ever saw." Now that I've made my case, let me know what you think. Tweet me @hoover__26 or drop your opinion in the comment box below. As for my final thoughts, if you've made it this far, congratulations. I hope you know more about Arvydas Sabonis than when you began reading this. If not, the public must be more informed than I thought. But if that was true, would he be so underappreciated (the player who the NBA, the government, and the people of America campaigned to acquire, and the Russian government dare not give up)? I certainly hope not.

T.J. McConnell: The Next Generation of Great Point Guards?

Pure point guard. You hear the term so often in today's NBA, but what does it even mean? Is it a ball distributor who looks for the pass first, and all else later? If so, then you could say Ben Simmons is a "pure point guard" despite the fact that he's 6'10" and may not even play point guard in a real game. Is it an offensive facilitator, who does what is necessary for his team to score points? That may sound like the same thing, but the difference between the two is the distributor proactively looks to get his teammates good looks at the basket on every possession, while the facilitator allows his teammates to by default get good looks by being an active threat. If a "pure point guard" is an offensive facilitator, then you could call Stephen Curry one of the purest in the business, despite the fact that he often takes deep jumpers off the dribble. Is a pure point guard someone who CAN do it all, but chooses to work his teammates into the offense whenever he can? One example a lot of people have brought up is Chris Paul, and he more than likely falls closer to that last example. When I asked the public about this, I got responses like "always looks for the pass, selective shooting" (first example), "able to lead a team on both sides of the floor...able to distribute and shoot as well as defend." (second example), and "runs the floor, sets up teammates, takes care of the ball" (closer to the first example). The most common player comparisons were Chris Paul, John Wall, Rajon Rondo, John Stockton, Steve Nash, Mike Conley, Tony Parker, and Damian Lillard (listed in order of most mentioned). Why am I asking this question? Well, because there is a young man playing for Philadelphia that just may be the exact definition of "pure point guard". T.J. McConnell is one of the most willing and talented passers in the game, shot nearly 35% from long range in his rookie season, and was 10th in the league in steals per 48 minutes last season (espn.com). But, since I know the burden of proof is on me to provide adequate statistics and observations in order for you to join me as a McConnell believer, I will certainly not stop there.

Another trait of a real pure point guard is "someone who can make every pass with ease". If you need proof that McConnell can do that, watch the video I will end this article with. If having the "ability to pass from anywhere, selective 3pt shooting and arsenal of mid range moves to get off shots" is also a key part, then McConnell fits that bill as well. He shot nearly 52% from within 16 feet last season, and despite being a solid long range shooter, attempted less than a fifth of his shots from long range. For reference, Kemba Walker (a career 33.4% three point shooter) has attempted more than 30% of his shots from three in his career. McConnell also has stats that top some of those "pure point guards" that were mentioned the most. McConnell finished 6th in the NBA in assists per 48 minutes, ahead of guys like Tony Parker, Damian Lillard, and Mike Conley. He also finished in the top 15 in assist/turnover ratio for point guards while guys like John Wall fell to the 20s. (courtesy of espn.com). McConnell also finished in the top 10 in assist percentage and finished above the Devensive Player of the Year Kawhi Leonard in steal percentage (basketball-reference.com). Sounds to me like McConnell's numbers and style fit perfectly with the "passing and defense" mold of a pure point guard. And if guys like CP3 and John Wall can be All-Stars and elite players, why not T.J.? Let's just say, for argument's sake, that McConnell continues to improve and eventually (say his 3rd or 4th season) gets in a situation where he is playing 28-32 minutes per game consistently. That's a feasible start to McConnell's career path, and it also happens to match Kyle Lowry's early career almost exactly. You can make the argument that McConnell was three years older than Lowry when he came into the league, but if you compare ages, you have to make a note of the following. Lowry averaged 13.5 points, 6.7 assists and 5.4 rebounds per 36 minutes in his age 23 season, with many years of NBA experience already. In McConnell's rookie season (also his age 23 season), he averaged 11.1 points, 8.2 assists and 5.6 rebounds per 36 minutes (courtesy of basketball-reference.com). If Lowry went on to be a an All-Star, what is stopping T.J. McConnell from ascending to that height?

Earlier in the article, I promised that I would show you a video that proves just how good T.J. McConnell has already become. Not being one to disappoint, here is that video...

Enjoy. If you agree, disagree, or just have a comment in general, drop that in the comments section or on my Twitter account, @hoover__26. Thanks!

The Case For: Al Jefferson

First off, NBA contracts have been nuts this year. I know, I know, a new precedent has been set for contracts in sports. But, two guys who I don't even count as top 5 in their position have both received the largest contracts in their leagues' history. However, in the middle of all of this money flying around, the Indiana Pacers have made a move that has gotten so few kudos yet may be one of the most important moves of free agency.

Al Jefferson is on the back end of a historic career, no arguing that. His stats last year were the lowest he's had since his Boston days (the first few years of his career). He was injured and suspended, and was only able to play in 47 games last season (averaging only 23.3 minutes per game). However, he still turned in a respectable line of 12/6.4/1.5 heading into a contract year, and signed a 3 year, 30 million dollar deal with Indiana. While 10 million a year for a 31 year old big man with nagging injuries and off the court concerns may sound high, consider the salaries of a few other freshly inked players. Joakim Noah is making 18 million a year with the Knicks, coming off an injury filled age 31 season in which he scored less than five points per game. Courtney Lee is making 12.5 million a year. Jared Dudley is making 10 million a year. Joe Johnson is making 11 million a year. Anthony Tolliver is making 8 million a year. Now, Tolliver is an interesting example. According to spotrac.com, Tolliver has made between $41,854 and $3,000,000 in salary every year of his career. However, despite being the same age as Jefferson (and having a line of 5.3/3.2/0.7), is going to be making 2 2/3 times more than he was the previous year. While he may not have the injury concerns like Al, he has been consistently and considerably worse than Al his entire career and isn't getting any better. So, using that logic, Al (who made $13,500,000 last season) should be making at least 15-20 million this season with the inflation of contracts, right? Nope.

Another thing to consider is, Al is only two years removed from his last 20/10 season. His offensive rating, defensive rating, win shares per forty minutes, and true shooting percentage all improved from 2014-15 to 2015-16 (basketball-reference.com). I honestly don't care one bit about his suspension and fine last season for what was called "A violation of the Anti-Drug program" or "PEDs" (come on now, we all know what it was, don't play it up like he was popping HGH or doing heroin in an alley). If Al can come into next season more healthy than he was last season, I see no reason for him not to finish with a line around 15/8/2 if he gets at least 28 minutes per game. For $10,000,000 a year, I'd call that a steal considering the team's lack of experience in the post. Also, if you estimate Big Classic will at a minimum score as many points as he did last year (which he will top, I am sure of that), Indiana is paying him $17,793 per point. The other Al, Al Horford (who just signed a deal with Boston) would be paid $22,683 per point if he repeated his previous season.

With the great signing of Al Jefferson, Indiana just further solidifies their place as a favorite for a top 5 seed in the east. Honestly, with the addition of Jeff Teague, the dominance of Paul George, the development of Myles Turner, the great drafting of Larry Bird and company, and the signing of Al Jefferson, this is a team that could be finding themselves in a place to make a run at a spot in the finals.

NBA Draft 2016 Big Board

I thought I would pitch in to the massive bank of people giving their two cents on the fast approaching NBA Draft. This is my big board (not my mock, simply the best guy available). I could go into a whole explanation of why each guy is here or there, but instead I choose to present it in a clean way that incites conversation (go ahead and comment or tweet me @hoover__26 with #NBABigBoard to chat about my thought process and share your own).

1.   Brandon Ingram
2.   Ben Simmons
3.   Jamal Murray
4.   Kris Dunn
5.   Jaylen Brown
6.   Marquese Chriss
7  . Henry Ellenson
8.   Skal Labissiere
9.   Buddy Hield
10. Dragan Bender
11. Timothe Luwawu
12. Jacob Poetl
13. Deyonta Davis
14. Furkan Korkmaz
15. Damantas Sabonis
16. Wade Baldwin
17. Denzel Valentine
18. Thon Maker
19. Malachi Richardson
20. Demetrius Jackson
21. Taurean Prince
22. Dejounte Murray
23. Brice Johnson
24. Ante Zizic
25. DeAndre Bembry
26. Cheick Diallo
27. Damian Jones
28. Tyler Ulis
29. Juan Hernangomez
30. Ivica Zubac

Some other guys that are lower on my board,  I think are underrated and could have great NBA careers are:

Wes Washpun
Cat Barber
Kay Felder
Egidijus Mockevicius
Mike Tobey
Isaiah Cousins
Wayne Selden
Gary Payton II
Michael Gbinjie
Ben Bentil
Pascal Siakam
Jarrod Uthoff

Wes Washpun Vs. Isaiah Thomas NBA Draft Prospect Analysis Evaluation

Wes Washpun vs. Isaiah Thomas

Body Type Evaluation

Wes Washpun out of UNI is a hard guy to make a comparison to. At first, Kyrie Irving jumped out to me. However, Washpun being generously listed at 6’1” made that a hard comparison to make. While Isaiah clearly has the height disadvantage (standing at only 5’9”), they have similar physical traits. Both are ridiculous jumpers, with Washpun hitting 36.5 inches on the no-step vertical and Isaiah having what is rumored to be a 38.5 inch max vertical. Washpun is considerably longer than Thomas, being 3-4 inches taller and having a wingspan of nearly 6’7” (according to hoopshabit.com), almost five inches longer than Thomas’. Washpun, despite being the taller and longer of the two, weighs about ten pounds less than Thomas. However, both are similar in that they are undersized point guards with wingspans that exceed their heights by about 5 inches.

Statistical Evaluation

Statistically, this is another interesting argument. Metrically, they are very similar. Their rebound percentage, assist percentage, steal percentage, block percentage, turnover percentage and usage percentage for their last year in college all are within a few points of each other (Washpun having the lead in all of them except turnover percentage and steal percentage, and a lower usage percentage). Thomas has the lead in true shooting percentage by .014, as well as the lead in Win Shares and Box Plus/Minus (all stats courtesy of sports-reference.com). While Thomas seems to have been the more impactful player for his team, scoring and assisting at higher averages than Washpun, Wes appears to be the more well rounded player. He was seventh in the Missouri Valley Conference in blocked shots at 6’1”, and second in the conference in points produced. Thomas was also playing with three future NBA wing men, which may have aided in his assist numbers. Regardless, both were very capable college point guards, and they were both vital parts of their team's’ success. Washpun is a more well rounded player, while Thomas is a better passer and shooter.

Film Evaluation

When you go to the film, a few things become obvious. Both Washpun and Thomas are great penetrators and finishers around the rim, and they are both extremely bouncy and light on their feet. While, as I said, I initially compared Washpun to Kyrie, the fact that Washpun has to rely on quickness and explosiveness as opposed to Kyrie having his 6’4” frame backing him up makes it a harder comparison to make. Isaiah’s college mixtape shows a ton of jumping into passing lanes, driving and juking shot blockers, and passing from the interior. Washpun is versed in all three of these things, and while Thomas may shoot a few more threes, Washpun has the ability to expand his range (if you need proof, look up Washpun’s three quarter court jumper in UNI’s upset win over #1 North Carolina). While Thomas’s flashy interior lob and drop off passes are a thing of beauty, I was really impressed with Washpun’s ability to drive, turn into the post, and find an open shooter from the painted area like a Greg Monroe.

Final Thoughts

Wes Washpun is one of my favorite sleepers in this year’s draft. As I have said, I think he could very easily be a starting point guard in the NBA one day. He compares to Isaiah Thomas in many areas, including style of play and rebounding as a shorter player. Potential landing spots for Washpun could be places like Chicago, Memphis, Atlanta, or New York, teams that either need a point guard now or are preparing for the impending loss of their current point guard but also have other needs to fill earlier in the draft. For instance, I could see Chicago addressing their needs in the frontcourt first, then going after Washpun as the possible heir of Derrick Rose. Nonetheless, I think Wes Washpun has a tremendously high ceiling in the NBA, and should get the recognition he deserves.

Henry Ellenson vs.Kevin Love Prospect Analysis and Evaluation

Henry Ellenson vs. Kevin Love

Body Type Evaluation

If you look at the measurables on both Love and Ellenson, it may seem pretty clear cut. Ellenson, the Marquette product, is listed on espn.com at 7’, 242 pounds. Love is listed at 6’10”, 251 pounds. Ellenson’s pre-draft standing reach and wingspan top Love’s pre-draft numbers by one and two inches, respectively. It looks as though Ellenson has the right body to be a center in the NBA on day one. However, according to Zach Brunner (@fantasyflurry has played basketball with Ellenson), Henry is probably closer to 6’10” (at only 19, nothing says he can’t reach 7’ at some point, but he will be quite undersized at the 5 on draft day). But, that doesn’t mean he and Love see eye to eye when it comes to height. Love’s 6’10” listing is one of the most controversial in the game, and he was measured at 6’ 7.8” without shoes at his NBA combine. Adding the average 1 ½” for basketball shoes, Love would have had to have grown nearly an inch since his combine to be a legitimate 6’10” in shoes. Ellenson fits the Kevin Love bill as far as being a slightly undersized rebounder with an offensive game that stretches out as far as anyone’s. But, I would say Ellenson has the edge on physical measurables, as he is now (at 19 years old) what Kevin Love has tried to grow into (and maybe never has, but nobody really knows).  

Statistical Evaluation

As far as the numbers go, these two are pretty close. Ellenson averaged 17 points, 9.7 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 1.5 blocks per game for Marquette (sports-reference.com). Love averaged 17.5 points, 10.6 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game for UCLA (basketball-reference.com). Just looking at that, you may be tempted to give Love the slight edge. However, teammates and competition have to also be considered (not to mention metric stats). Ellenson’s Marquette played against 12 NCAA tournament teams, and went 4-7 against those teams. Kevin Love’s UCLA team went 7-2 against ranked teams in 2007 (technically it was 7-1-V, after Memphis had their wins vacated due to some supposed shenanigans with Derrick Rose’s brother). However, Kevin Love played with three other future NBA players in his starting lineup (including Russell Westbrook). Ellenson’s right hand man (junior forward Luke Fischer) averaged 12.1 points, 6.2 boards and 1 assist (granted it was on a FG% of 60%, but still not even close to matching the impact of Russell Westbrook and Darren Collison). Love has the metric edge in pretty much every stat, but he was also quite a bit more free to shoot as he pleased with such impressive teammates. Ellenson has the potential to boost his rebounding to a Love-like level, but he needs to improve there if he wants to be equally as strong on the boards. I give the statistical edge to Love, but Ellenson had quite a bit bigger role on his team (and in turn more pressure on him to perform on a nightly basis).

Film Evaluation

When you go to the film, it’s clear that these two are similar players. They both are adept at using both hands on finishes in the post, and both have strong touch when putting up floaters. Love may appear to be a better and more willing passer, but just look at who he was passing to! Ellenson was tasked as a freshman to be the main contributor on a Marquette team that wasn’t stacked with talent, while Love was tasked to be ONE of the contributors on a #1 ranked team with multiple future NBA All-Stars on it.  While Ellenson may have seemed inconsistent with his jumper, just look at the following images.

Love has more space there than Ellenson would know what to do with (this is not the only time this happened, I just picked that play for an example). In addition to this, Love’s low post game was bolstered by the fact that defenders often fronted him to avoid being sealed on a drive by Westbrook or Collison (both accomplished drivers to the hoop). Don’t get me wrong, Kevin Love had an elite post game in college (and still does today). However, the numbers may be a little misleading.  Another thing that I have seen people knock Ellenson with is his defensive ability. While that is one of his weaknesses, I see things that tell me he will improve. For one, he really didn’t have any help on defense! When a player is driving on Ellenson, he was left to protect the rim on his own many times. It also seems like Ellenson has the physical, mental and emotional ability to work hard at improving his weak spots. For more on that, here is a quote from Zach Brunner: “That kid has his head on straight and has improved an insane amount from when I first met him when he was a freshman in high school. He has the work ethic to be the best, and that is his only goal right now. He has this slight arrogance that I think you need to succeed in this league. In his mind, if he wants to do something, nobody is going to stop him. Luckily, his head is on straight, comes from small town roots, and has that humbleness to back it up. Think like how Larry Bird was.” I’d say those are some pretty strong words.

Final Thoughts

I think Henry Ellenson is a very good prospect, and I would certainly take him in the top 15 in this year’s draft. Do I think he can be Kevin Love? Well, they are similar (but not identical) players. Ellenson has a better NBA body than Love, but his overall fundamentals are still lagging behind where Love was at his age. Ellenson is still adjusting to being a low post presence on both sides of the ball, as he tended to work more from the midrange area in high school. I’m very excited to see Ellenson in the NBA, and if he can continue to improve as a 19 year old player, he should be someone to watch for years to come.

Kris Dunn vs. John Wall NBA Draft Prospect Evaluation

Kris Dunn vs. John Wall

Body Type Evaluation

To begin this assessment, I am going to focus on one thing that makes both Wall and Dunn extraordinary from a measurements standpoint, (channeling my inner Jay Bilas here) their wingspan. An average NBA point guard has a wingspan of about 6’5” (nyloncalculus.com). Wall’s wingspan of 6’9” would have put him well over the 90th percentile. Now, according to espn.com, Kris Dunn out of Providence has a wingspan of 6’10”. We just saw how valuable a point guard who can shoot over defenders is when Shaun Livingston torched the Cleveland defense by penetrating and releasing over the shorter guard playing him. If Dunn’s wingspan is really that massive, that’s a big selling point for me. As far as standing reach goes, Wall’s 8’6” tops Dunn’s 8’4”, but 8’4” is still enough to put him close to the 90th percentile in that respect. From there, I can see why the comparisons are made. Both are slashing guards who have above average speed and athleticism, and both have had injury problems in the past (proving the while Dunn’s past injuries may be a red flag, the story can have a happy ending as it did with Wall’s success in the NBA). While the height and weight measurements on Dunn varies from listing to listing, most have him at nearly 6’4” and a little over 200lbs. Wall is approximately the same height, and just a little lighter at 196lbs. As far as this goes, I would say Wall and Dunn have very similar body types, which suit a very similar playing style. However, that certainly doesn’t paint the whole picture. If we want to fill in all of the blanks, and be able to make the most educated guess possible on Dunn’s potential, we need to look at this comparison from a few more angles.

Statistical Evaluation

Statistically, this is another interesting comparison. Both Wall and Dunn played with other dominant stars in college, Wall having played with guys like DeMarcus Cousins, Patrick Patterson and Eric Bledsoe, and Dunn with Ben Bentil (who is staying in the draft as of now) and Rodney Bullock. Wall and Dunn’s college scoring in the year before they were drafted (Wall was a one and done, so that was his freshman year) was separated by about a fifth of a point. Wall averaged 0.3 assists more per game that Dunn, but nearly a whole rebound less. Dunn also played less minutes per game than Wall, and therefore has better stats per 40 minutes. However, when it comes to Win Shares Per 40 Minutes, Wall has a considerable lead on Dunn (sports-reference.com), while concurrently having a lower usage percentage. Dunn has the lead in Player Efficiency Rating, which for the record I don’t like to rely on as a true judge of efficiency. Overall, the stats are pretty close. They both steal the ball at a very good clip, and they both are pretty prone to turnovers. In a purely statistical evaluation, I would have to give Wall the edge (also accounting for the fact that he was a freshman and Dunn has parts of four seasons played in college). But, while Ben Bentil was a great player for Providence, Wall had much better teammates (they had five players taken in the first round that year). Metrically, however, the edge probably goes to Dunn. He has a greater assist percentage, rebound percentage, steal percentage, and a lower turnover percentage (sports-reference.com). Shooting is a big topic for these two, as Wall’s shaky jump shot was often a question earlier in his career (he once shot less than 10% from long range in a year). Dunn’s three point shooting percentage his last year in college was better than Wall’s, but keep in mind that Dunn has had more time in college to work on it (he is only 3 years younger than Wall despite being in the draft six years after him). One thing about Dunn that has me worried is his rather low True Shooting Percentage. It sits at .541, which is lower than Wall’s college number. If Dunn is going to have a similar career arc as Wall, he will need to pick up his shooting as Wall did. From this perspective, it seems like Wall and Dunn share many of the same statistical strengths and weaknesses. But, there is one last test for them to go through, and that is perhaps the most important one of all for NBA scouts: the eye test.

Film Evaluation

Now, with the last two angles to this comparison, it’s pretty obvious how Kris Dunn drew his John Wall comparisons. But when it comes to the mixtapes, it goes beyond just a comparison. It gets to the point where it’s hard to tell them apart. I have watched both players, and I found John Wall’s college play a little more “dynamic”, but that doesn’t really matter much as far as production. Dunn has great speed, like Wall. He uses that speed and twitchy quickness to jump passes and get easy dunks, like Wall. He uses those easy dunks to create future openings when it comes to penetration, like Wall. In fact, I re-watched a few mixtapes of Wall and Dunn from college, and I was a little bit frightened by the similarities. If you get a chance, find Wall’s game winner vs. Miami (Ohio) on YouTube, then find Dunn’s game winner vs. Creighton. It’s the same play. Dunn goes the same way as Wall, he steps back in the same spot, shoots pretty much the same shot, and it ends with the same result. Wall’s was a splash, it barely touched the net. Dunn’s hit the back of the rim, and bounced around a while before going down. Regardless of how it went in, it did on both occasions, and ended with a win being put in the column of Kentucky and Providence.

Final Thoughts

John Wall is a tremendous player. Kris Dunn is a tremendous prospect. Will their career parabolas share the same arc? I don’t know the answer to that question, nobody does right now. However, what I can say is that Dunn shares many of the traits of a player like Wall. While Wall did what he did as a freshman, and therefore seemed to have more potential, Dunn is still someone I certainly would take in the Lottery. Without doubt, I can say that Kris Dunn is the real deal, and could fill a similar role as Emmanuel Mudiay did last season. But, comparing those two is another story entirely, one that I don’t choose to tell. I conclude this article by saying the following to any NBA team who thinks they can contend with a combo guard who can step in and competently score and defend in a number of ways- Kris Dunn is available, and ready to go.