The Case For: Al Jefferson

First off, NBA contracts have been nuts this year. I know, I know, a new precedent has been set for contracts in sports. But, two guys who I don't even count as top 5 in their position have both received the largest contracts in their leagues' history. However, in the middle of all of this money flying around, the Indiana Pacers have made a move that has gotten so few kudos yet may be one of the most important moves of free agency.

Al Jefferson is on the back end of a historic career, no arguing that. His stats last year were the lowest he's had since his Boston days (the first few years of his career). He was injured and suspended, and was only able to play in 47 games last season (averaging only 23.3 minutes per game). However, he still turned in a respectable line of 12/6.4/1.5 heading into a contract year, and signed a 3 year, 30 million dollar deal with Indiana. While 10 million a year for a 31 year old big man with nagging injuries and off the court concerns may sound high, consider the salaries of a few other freshly inked players. Joakim Noah is making 18 million a year with the Knicks, coming off an injury filled age 31 season in which he scored less than five points per game. Courtney Lee is making 12.5 million a year. Jared Dudley is making 10 million a year. Joe Johnson is making 11 million a year. Anthony Tolliver is making 8 million a year. Now, Tolliver is an interesting example. According to spotrac.com, Tolliver has made between $41,854 and $3,000,000 in salary every year of his career. However, despite being the same age as Jefferson (and having a line of 5.3/3.2/0.7), is going to be making 2 2/3 times more than he was the previous year. While he may not have the injury concerns like Al, he has been consistently and considerably worse than Al his entire career and isn't getting any better. So, using that logic, Al (who made $13,500,000 last season) should be making at least 15-20 million this season with the inflation of contracts, right? Nope.

Another thing to consider is, Al is only two years removed from his last 20/10 season. His offensive rating, defensive rating, win shares per forty minutes, and true shooting percentage all improved from 2014-15 to 2015-16 (basketball-reference.com). I honestly don't care one bit about his suspension and fine last season for what was called "A violation of the Anti-Drug program" or "PEDs" (come on now, we all know what it was, don't play it up like he was popping HGH or doing heroin in an alley). If Al can come into next season more healthy than he was last season, I see no reason for him not to finish with a line around 15/8/2 if he gets at least 28 minutes per game. For $10,000,000 a year, I'd call that a steal considering the team's lack of experience in the post. Also, if you estimate Big Classic will at a minimum score as many points as he did last year (which he will top, I am sure of that), Indiana is paying him $17,793 per point. The other Al, Al Horford (who just signed a deal with Boston) would be paid $22,683 per point if he repeated his previous season.

With the great signing of Al Jefferson, Indiana just further solidifies their place as a favorite for a top 5 seed in the east. Honestly, with the addition of Jeff Teague, the dominance of Paul George, the development of Myles Turner, the great drafting of Larry Bird and company, and the signing of Al Jefferson, this is a team that could be finding themselves in a place to make a run at a spot in the finals.