Kris Dunn vs. John Wall NBA Draft Prospect Evaluation

Kris Dunn vs. John Wall

Body Type Evaluation

To begin this assessment, I am going to focus on one thing that makes both Wall and Dunn extraordinary from a measurements standpoint, (channeling my inner Jay Bilas here) their wingspan. An average NBA point guard has a wingspan of about 6’5” (nyloncalculus.com). Wall’s wingspan of 6’9” would have put him well over the 90th percentile. Now, according to espn.com, Kris Dunn out of Providence has a wingspan of 6’10”. We just saw how valuable a point guard who can shoot over defenders is when Shaun Livingston torched the Cleveland defense by penetrating and releasing over the shorter guard playing him. If Dunn’s wingspan is really that massive, that’s a big selling point for me. As far as standing reach goes, Wall’s 8’6” tops Dunn’s 8’4”, but 8’4” is still enough to put him close to the 90th percentile in that respect. From there, I can see why the comparisons are made. Both are slashing guards who have above average speed and athleticism, and both have had injury problems in the past (proving the while Dunn’s past injuries may be a red flag, the story can have a happy ending as it did with Wall’s success in the NBA). While the height and weight measurements on Dunn varies from listing to listing, most have him at nearly 6’4” and a little over 200lbs. Wall is approximately the same height, and just a little lighter at 196lbs. As far as this goes, I would say Wall and Dunn have very similar body types, which suit a very similar playing style. However, that certainly doesn’t paint the whole picture. If we want to fill in all of the blanks, and be able to make the most educated guess possible on Dunn’s potential, we need to look at this comparison from a few more angles.

Statistical Evaluation

Statistically, this is another interesting comparison. Both Wall and Dunn played with other dominant stars in college, Wall having played with guys like DeMarcus Cousins, Patrick Patterson and Eric Bledsoe, and Dunn with Ben Bentil (who is staying in the draft as of now) and Rodney Bullock. Wall and Dunn’s college scoring in the year before they were drafted (Wall was a one and done, so that was his freshman year) was separated by about a fifth of a point. Wall averaged 0.3 assists more per game that Dunn, but nearly a whole rebound less. Dunn also played less minutes per game than Wall, and therefore has better stats per 40 minutes. However, when it comes to Win Shares Per 40 Minutes, Wall has a considerable lead on Dunn (sports-reference.com), while concurrently having a lower usage percentage. Dunn has the lead in Player Efficiency Rating, which for the record I don’t like to rely on as a true judge of efficiency. Overall, the stats are pretty close. They both steal the ball at a very good clip, and they both are pretty prone to turnovers. In a purely statistical evaluation, I would have to give Wall the edge (also accounting for the fact that he was a freshman and Dunn has parts of four seasons played in college). But, while Ben Bentil was a great player for Providence, Wall had much better teammates (they had five players taken in the first round that year). Metrically, however, the edge probably goes to Dunn. He has a greater assist percentage, rebound percentage, steal percentage, and a lower turnover percentage (sports-reference.com). Shooting is a big topic for these two, as Wall’s shaky jump shot was often a question earlier in his career (he once shot less than 10% from long range in a year). Dunn’s three point shooting percentage his last year in college was better than Wall’s, but keep in mind that Dunn has had more time in college to work on it (he is only 3 years younger than Wall despite being in the draft six years after him). One thing about Dunn that has me worried is his rather low True Shooting Percentage. It sits at .541, which is lower than Wall’s college number. If Dunn is going to have a similar career arc as Wall, he will need to pick up his shooting as Wall did. From this perspective, it seems like Wall and Dunn share many of the same statistical strengths and weaknesses. But, there is one last test for them to go through, and that is perhaps the most important one of all for NBA scouts: the eye test.

Film Evaluation

Now, with the last two angles to this comparison, it’s pretty obvious how Kris Dunn drew his John Wall comparisons. But when it comes to the mixtapes, it goes beyond just a comparison. It gets to the point where it’s hard to tell them apart. I have watched both players, and I found John Wall’s college play a little more “dynamic”, but that doesn’t really matter much as far as production. Dunn has great speed, like Wall. He uses that speed and twitchy quickness to jump passes and get easy dunks, like Wall. He uses those easy dunks to create future openings when it comes to penetration, like Wall. In fact, I re-watched a few mixtapes of Wall and Dunn from college, and I was a little bit frightened by the similarities. If you get a chance, find Wall’s game winner vs. Miami (Ohio) on YouTube, then find Dunn’s game winner vs. Creighton. It’s the same play. Dunn goes the same way as Wall, he steps back in the same spot, shoots pretty much the same shot, and it ends with the same result. Wall’s was a splash, it barely touched the net. Dunn’s hit the back of the rim, and bounced around a while before going down. Regardless of how it went in, it did on both occasions, and ended with a win being put in the column of Kentucky and Providence.

Final Thoughts

John Wall is a tremendous player. Kris Dunn is a tremendous prospect. Will their career parabolas share the same arc? I don’t know the answer to that question, nobody does right now. However, what I can say is that Dunn shares many of the traits of a player like Wall. While Wall did what he did as a freshman, and therefore seemed to have more potential, Dunn is still someone I certainly would take in the Lottery. Without doubt, I can say that Kris Dunn is the real deal, and could fill a similar role as Emmanuel Mudiay did last season. But, comparing those two is another story entirely, one that I don’t choose to tell. I conclude this article by saying the following to any NBA team who thinks they can contend with a combo guard who can step in and competently score and defend in a number of ways- Kris Dunn is available, and ready to go.