Henry Ellenson vs.Kevin Love Prospect Analysis and Evaluation

Henry Ellenson vs. Kevin Love

Body Type Evaluation

If you look at the measurables on both Love and Ellenson, it may seem pretty clear cut. Ellenson, the Marquette product, is listed on espn.com at 7’, 242 pounds. Love is listed at 6’10”, 251 pounds. Ellenson’s pre-draft standing reach and wingspan top Love’s pre-draft numbers by one and two inches, respectively. It looks as though Ellenson has the right body to be a center in the NBA on day one. However, according to Zach Brunner (@fantasyflurry has played basketball with Ellenson), Henry is probably closer to 6’10” (at only 19, nothing says he can’t reach 7’ at some point, but he will be quite undersized at the 5 on draft day). But, that doesn’t mean he and Love see eye to eye when it comes to height. Love’s 6’10” listing is one of the most controversial in the game, and he was measured at 6’ 7.8” without shoes at his NBA combine. Adding the average 1 ½” for basketball shoes, Love would have had to have grown nearly an inch since his combine to be a legitimate 6’10” in shoes. Ellenson fits the Kevin Love bill as far as being a slightly undersized rebounder with an offensive game that stretches out as far as anyone’s. But, I would say Ellenson has the edge on physical measurables, as he is now (at 19 years old) what Kevin Love has tried to grow into (and maybe never has, but nobody really knows).  

Statistical Evaluation

As far as the numbers go, these two are pretty close. Ellenson averaged 17 points, 9.7 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 1.5 blocks per game for Marquette (sports-reference.com). Love averaged 17.5 points, 10.6 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game for UCLA (basketball-reference.com). Just looking at that, you may be tempted to give Love the slight edge. However, teammates and competition have to also be considered (not to mention metric stats). Ellenson’s Marquette played against 12 NCAA tournament teams, and went 4-7 against those teams. Kevin Love’s UCLA team went 7-2 against ranked teams in 2007 (technically it was 7-1-V, after Memphis had their wins vacated due to some supposed shenanigans with Derrick Rose’s brother). However, Kevin Love played with three other future NBA players in his starting lineup (including Russell Westbrook). Ellenson’s right hand man (junior forward Luke Fischer) averaged 12.1 points, 6.2 boards and 1 assist (granted it was on a FG% of 60%, but still not even close to matching the impact of Russell Westbrook and Darren Collison). Love has the metric edge in pretty much every stat, but he was also quite a bit more free to shoot as he pleased with such impressive teammates. Ellenson has the potential to boost his rebounding to a Love-like level, but he needs to improve there if he wants to be equally as strong on the boards. I give the statistical edge to Love, but Ellenson had quite a bit bigger role on his team (and in turn more pressure on him to perform on a nightly basis).

Film Evaluation

When you go to the film, it’s clear that these two are similar players. They both are adept at using both hands on finishes in the post, and both have strong touch when putting up floaters. Love may appear to be a better and more willing passer, but just look at who he was passing to! Ellenson was tasked as a freshman to be the main contributor on a Marquette team that wasn’t stacked with talent, while Love was tasked to be ONE of the contributors on a #1 ranked team with multiple future NBA All-Stars on it.  While Ellenson may have seemed inconsistent with his jumper, just look at the following images.

Love has more space there than Ellenson would know what to do with (this is not the only time this happened, I just picked that play for an example). In addition to this, Love’s low post game was bolstered by the fact that defenders often fronted him to avoid being sealed on a drive by Westbrook or Collison (both accomplished drivers to the hoop). Don’t get me wrong, Kevin Love had an elite post game in college (and still does today). However, the numbers may be a little misleading.  Another thing that I have seen people knock Ellenson with is his defensive ability. While that is one of his weaknesses, I see things that tell me he will improve. For one, he really didn’t have any help on defense! When a player is driving on Ellenson, he was left to protect the rim on his own many times. It also seems like Ellenson has the physical, mental and emotional ability to work hard at improving his weak spots. For more on that, here is a quote from Zach Brunner: “That kid has his head on straight and has improved an insane amount from when I first met him when he was a freshman in high school. He has the work ethic to be the best, and that is his only goal right now. He has this slight arrogance that I think you need to succeed in this league. In his mind, if he wants to do something, nobody is going to stop him. Luckily, his head is on straight, comes from small town roots, and has that humbleness to back it up. Think like how Larry Bird was.” I’d say those are some pretty strong words.

Final Thoughts

I think Henry Ellenson is a very good prospect, and I would certainly take him in the top 15 in this year’s draft. Do I think he can be Kevin Love? Well, they are similar (but not identical) players. Ellenson has a better NBA body than Love, but his overall fundamentals are still lagging behind where Love was at his age. Ellenson is still adjusting to being a low post presence on both sides of the ball, as he tended to work more from the midrange area in high school. I’m very excited to see Ellenson in the NBA, and if he can continue to improve as a 19 year old player, he should be someone to watch for years to come.