March Madness 2016 Breakdown

2016 March Madness Breakdown

March Madness is finally here! The zenith of the fantasy sports year (at least for me), this year’s March Madness is primed to be one of the maddest on record. This article will break down some of the tougher (or more exciting) matchups in the first and possibly second round. Have your bracket ready? Good! Now, let’s begin!

1 Kansas vs. 16 Austin Peay, Round of 64

Kansas is going to win. Let me say that right off the bat. You may be thinking, I thought he was going to be breaking down the tougher to decide matchups. Well, I started with this one because Austin Peay is going to give Kansas a fight (and make this one of the most watchable 1/16 games in the tourney). Chris Horton is averaging 18.9 points and 12 boards per game for the Governors, and Josh Robinson is averaging nearly 17 points to go along with his 80+ FT%. This should be an awesome game, and if any #1 seed is going down this year (I’m 99% sure they won’t) it might be Final Four favorite Kansas (but probably not). If Kansas can make it past this game (which they will, in all likelihood) it may seem that a matchup with the Cal Golden Bears is the only legitimate challenge for them until the Final Four. But wait a minute, what if Cal never goes that far (they wouldn’t meet until the Sweet Sixteen)?

4 California vs. 13 Hawaii, Round of 64

This one may seem like an easy choice on the surface. Cal has a bunch of future NBA players on their roster, and Hawaii is 0-1 vs. Top 25 teams (yahoo.com). However, the Rainbow Warriors (yes, the Rainbow Warriors) are a much tougher team than you may think. Hawaii’s points scored vs points allowed differential is better than that of Cal, and they out-assist Cal by 2.8 dimes per game. Understand, however, that Hawaii’s numbers came against less talented teams. That is a detracting factor, as Hawaii would be the favorite if their stats came against the same opponents as Cal. Nevertheless, Hawaii is one of the better teams in the nation defending the perimeter, and also have stud post player Stefan Jankovic averaging 1.2 blocks per game. Hawaii is also much deeper than Cal, having eight players scoring over 5 points per game (compared to just the starting five for Cal). If you want to be contrarian with your picks, Hawaii is one of my favorite first round upset choices against a slow, methodical Cal team.

7 Iowa vs. 10 Temple, Round of 64

First off, Iowa has only two players that average double digit scoring. That may seem like a disadvantage, and it usually is, but take into consideration that those two guys are Jarrod Uthoff and Peter Jok. Uthoff has an elite stat line of 18.9 PPG, 6.4 RPG and 2.7 BPG, as well as a .392 percentage from long range.  Jok is a top-notch shooter, and is second on the team in scoring and steals while averaging only about 27 minutes per game. Temple has their share of star power, with do-it-all player Quenton DeCosey leading the team in scoring. They also have elite rebounder Jaylen Bond, who will help them on the glass against a solid rebounding team in Iowa. This is one of the closer matchups, but I would have to say that Iowa has the edge here. I just don’t think Temple, who sits at 271st in the nation in scoring, can keep Iowa from out-shooting them. I know that jump shooting teams are usually frowned upon in the tourney, but Iowa is more than just a one trick pony.

8 St. Joseph’s vs. 9 Cincinnati, Round of 64

This one is a bit odd, as the higher seed in St. Joe’s is actually losing the “popular vote”, so to speak, 48% to 52%. That is more than likely because of the Bearcats’ stifling defense (fun fact, the Bearcats are NOT named after the animal, which is actually called a Binturong, or the Stutz Bearcat, but after former Cincy fullback Leonard Baehr). Cincy also has a star guard in Troy Caupain, who dropped 37 points in the team’s quadruple overtime loss to UConn. However, St. Joe's has a stud guard of their own (as well as Timmy Parks, who currently suits up as the most awesome mascot in sports, the St. Joseph’s Hawk). DeAndre Bembry is one of the most consistent players in all of basketball, having scored in single digits only once in the entire season. He also leads the team in assists and steals, and is second in scoring and rebounding. The team’s scoring and rebounding leader is Isaiah Miles (who also led the Philadelphia Inquirer’s all-improved team), a 6’8” forward who has also drained 62 treys at a 38.8% clip this season. Cincy may be a little deeper than St. Joe’s, but the Hawks may have found a new threat in forward Papa Ndau. In all, Cincy’s tough defense and electrifying guard play will be a formidable task for the Hawks, but I feel that St. Joe’s consistency will win out in the end.

6 Texas vs. 11 Northern Iowa, Round of 64

This one was a puzzler. I stared at the numbers for what seemed like forever, took into consideration everything I knew about both of these teams (which is probably more for Texas than UNI, as I followed Shaka Smart intently), and I still had trouble coming up with a conclusion. First, let’s revisit the numbers. The first thing that jumps off the page is UNI’s lack of depth. It isn’t that they don’t have a lot of good players,because they do, but the fact is they only have ten players all together who actually play. UNI’s top gun, Wes Washpun, is putting up a very strong 14.3 points, 4 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game. They don’t have anyone with outstanding rebound numbers, but they have a bunch of players with pretty solid totals (they are still low on the rebounding list). The same pretty much goes for Texas, as Cameron Ridley (whom I forsee getting around 15 minutes in their game) is the only Longhorn averaging more than 5.3 boards per game. Texas is bigger, but UNI is a far better shooting team. UNI also has taller guards, which I have found leads to deeper tournament runs in some cases. It seems like there teams could cancel each other out. Next, I look to the points scored/points allowed differential, and I find that UNI is winning that category. Lastly, I see that UNI is coming off a 6 game winning streak (including a win over possible 11 seed Wichita State), while Texas lost their last game against Baylor, as well as two losses in their last three games (the one win came against a non-tourney team in Oklahoma State). As much as I love Shaka Smart’s coaching style (it isn’t Havoc anymore, but it’s close), I am feeling UNI by a nose here. But I don’t think this could be any closer.

8 USC vs. 9 Providence, Round of 64

One thing I usually don’t like to use in the tournament, as it corrupts your perception of statistics, is the eye test. However, IF we were going on the eye test, this wouldn’t even be a question. Ben Bentil and Kris Dunn can only be described with one word, that word being “WOW”. USC has had a history of giving up big games to strong centers, so Bentil should come close to his 20+ points per game average. Dunn is so athletic, I don’t know if Julian Jacobs can run with him. USC is no pushover, though. They are in the top 20 in the nation in scoring, and grab nearly 40 rebounds per game. However, they give up about 75 points per game, which is especially bad when you play a team that has multiple 90+ point performances. In my opinion, Providence takes this one. However, I don’t think they have a huge chance of beating North Carolina in the round of 32 (assuming UNC beats either Florida Gulf Coast or Fairleigh Dickinson, probably Fairleigh if I were to pick that First 4 game).

7 Wisconsin vs. 10 Pittsburgh, Round of 64

The classic battle of the big name school vs. the low expectation cinderella. Wisconsin went to the big game last season, but lost a boatload of players. Pitt is an elite passing team, with some very physical players to match up with Wisconsin’s Nigel Hayes (16.3 PPG and 5.8 RPG). A main issue for Pitt is their lack of shooting, as no Panther made more than 46 threes (Jamel Artis). Wisconsin's Bronson Koenig, a 39.4% shooter from long range, made more threes than Pitt’s second and third best shooters combined. Wisconsin has a few players that rely on post scoring and rebounding, but Pitt and 6’9” forward-center Michael Young have held guys like Brice Johnson to only 7 boards. Personally, I think Wisconsin is getting a little too much credit for what they did last year. Pitt looks to me like a team primed for an upset, and could set you apart from your fellow bracket makers.

7 Dayton vs. 10 Syracuse, Round of 64

Now, Dayton has given me some huge boosts in the past when they made surprising runs (well, not too surprising to me). However, I think the Dayton magic has run out. They looked out of sorts in their last few games, and could be in a position to lose to a team many thought should have been NIT bound. Michael Gbinije is a star for Syracuse, and if Trevor Cooney can find his shot again, they could be a dangerous team. I contacted a team manager on Syracuse who hinted that he expects Syracuse to pull this one out (which isn’t all that surprising, seeing as he IS a team manager for them), and I agree with him. The ‘Cuse is loose!