Wednesday, February 3, 2016

NBA- Who Replaces San Antonio's Big 3?

NBA Dynasty- Who Replaces San Antonio’s Big 3?


The San Antonio Spurs are one of the NBA’s premier teams, and have been for over a decade. This is due, in large part, to their Big 3: Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, who are accounting for 72.5 espn.com fantasy points per game this season. However, the Spurs’ Big 3 have a combined age of 110. Timmy is having some serious knee issues, and Tony has struggled to put up numbers on a consistent basis this year. Manu may not be sitting out games for rest, despite being 38 years old, but he hasn’t been seeing as many minutes in the first place. Fortunately for the Spurs, they have a franchise that is stacked with young talent. Talent that will be stepping into some big shoes once the Big 3 either retires or starts to see Kevin Garnett-esque minutes. In this article, I will outline the players that you NBA dynasty players should be targeting now from the San Antonio Spurs bench and D-League.


Ray McCallum, PG, 9.9 MPG


While he isn’t exactly the heir apparent to Tony Parker (Patty Mills appears to be next in line for the throne), he should still see a spike in minutes when Parker’s role regresses. Patty has only seen enough minutes to be fantasy viable when Parker is injured, but I suspect McCallum should see plenty of court time when Patty is starting. The drop-off from Parker to Patty was considerably larger than the drop-off from Patty to McCallum, so the minutes will be more than likely closer to a split. The issue with McCallum is, we have really no idea what he can do in the long term. He went to the University of Detroit Mercy, which hasn’t been to the NCAA tournament since 2012 (when McCallum was playing), and is coached by McCallum’s father. He averaged 18.7 PPG his senior year in college, and hasn’t made more than 30 starts in any of his three NBA seasons. He did hit the 30 mark last year with Sacramento,  but ended up averaging only 7.4 points and 2.8 assists per game. That could have something to do with the fact that he was playing with DeMarcus Cousins, who was averaging over 18 shots per game. When he gets his chance in San Antonio, he will be more developed, and playing alongside Kawhi Leonard who is far more selfless. I would target McCallum in deeper dynasty leagues, as he will be taking a good portion of the minutes when Tony Parker is no longer holding the reins.


Kyle Anderson, SF, 12.5 MPG


Kyle Anderson is an interesting player. He has played his entire 2 year career with the Spurs, but hasn’t cracked the permanent rotation yet. His days at UCLA really are the only thing we have to go on as far as future production goes. He was a Swiss Army Knife to be sure, averaging 14.6 points, 8.8 boards and 6.5 assists per game in his second and final year of college. Anderson is a great target in dynasty leagues because with all the minutes that are going to be opening up, Anderson can fill multiple holes. At 6’9”, 230lbs, Anderson could conceivably play all five spots on the floor. His natural range would be the 2-3-4, but his passing skills could allow him to play “point forward” and take the ball in. His rebounding ability could also make him a valuable small-ball 5, not unlike Draymond Green. One of my favorite resources, FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO career projection of Kyle Anderson isn’t exactly fantastic. However, this may not be accounting for the fact that Anderson might be primed to take over the Big 3’s lost minutes. Take a look at Anderson’s projected WAR, but keep an eye on the
similarity scores. We just have to hope that Anderson’s career line ends up more like the one I circled in red than the one in blue.
 


This just shows how little we really know about how good he could be. But, what I do know is that he is versatile as can be. That will really give him a big boost in the race to claim the legendary minutes that are about to be forfeited, as he can step in to fill any need his team has. Anderson is someone I would be targeting in dynasty, purely do to his huge upside.





Boban Marjanovic, C, 8.4 MPG


Boban is one of my favorite young players in the NBA. He is a huge, humongous, hulking center, standing at 7’3” and weighing in at 290lbs. His hands are supposedly bigger than Kawhi Leonard’s (Leonard’s hands measure 9.75”, which is huge), and he has a wingspan of 7’8”. He is a ridiculously ginormous man. He can also play some basketball, which is sometimes hidden by his giant stature and limited minutes. If you expand Boban’s stats so they are per 100 possessions, he averages 34.9 points and 21.2 rebounds with a ridiculous 128 Offensive Rating (basketball-reference.com). Consider the fact that “The Admiral” David Robinson’s best season for that stat was 1996-97, where he averaged 39.6 points and 19.1 rebounds with a 117 Offensive Rating per 100 possessions. Boban is starting to look pretty good, huh? I understand that Boban is mostly playing against second units, but by the time Timmy is retired and LaMarcus Aldridge is in his 10th or 11th year, Boban will be ready to jump in and play some big minutes. I’m not expecting David Robinson out of him by any stretch, but I would be surprised if he didn’t put up really good fantasy stats when his number is called.


Jonathon Simmons, SG, 13.9 MPG


With Manu Ginobili nearing the end of his storied career, San Antonio needs someone to step up and fill that gaping hole. Simmons stands at 6’6”, the same height as Ginobili, but he has more athleticism than three of Ginobili. Simmons has the ability to play above the rim, which could be a useful skill as the Spurs transition from fundamentalists to a more modern system. Simmons also has a very nice touch from long range, shooting nearly 43% from deep. The thing that Simmons really needs is a midrange game. He attempts over 70% of his shots from either within 3 feet of the hoop or from behind the arc. If anyone can turn Simmons into a more well rounded player, it’s Gregg Popovich. Simmons has tremendous upside at only 26 years old, and could be leaping into a big role with the high number of minutes that are about to be unclaimed.


Cady Lalanne, C, 25.8 MPH (D-League)


Lalanne has never played in the NBA, but if the college and the D-League is any indication, he should be pretty good. He averaged 11.6 points and 9.5 boards per game his senior year at UMass, and is averaging 12.3 points and 7.7 rebounds in 27 Austin Spurs games this season. When the young man finally gets his chance, he will have probably learned to use his 6’10” 250lb frame (with a 7’5” wingspan) to his advantage significantly more. For someone who has already come close to averaging a double-double, that could spell doom for anyone trying to box him out. He also needs to work on his passing, which is something he didn’t really have to do in college. However, as I said before, Pop (the master of ball sharing) can do something to change that. If you are a dynasty league player looking for someone who could get you great rebounding and block numbers (and you can’t get or already have Boban), I really like Lalanne. He is a raw talent to be sure, but if any team can shape him into a star, it’s San Antonio.




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