What Could Have Been- The Legend of Arvydas Sabonis

Quick- name the most skilled and talented big men in basketball history. Instantly names like Hakeem, Kareem, Wilt and Shaq come to mind. Maybe even Dirk, KG, Tim Duncan, or David Robinson. Now, what if I told you the most skilled big man ever might just be missing from that list. Now, you're searching your brain banks trying to figure out who could possibly be better than these legends of the game. Finally, your brain lands on the name Arvydas Sabonis (pronounced ar-VEE-das). Perhaps you recall his NBA stats (12 points, 7.3 rebounds and 2.3 assists career) and think, what could possibly give this guy a chance against those greats we just mentioned? He played for only seven seasons over eight years, and never had as much as one single 20/10 season. Here you are, staring at your screen wondering what the heck I must be smoking to think this guy might be better than someone like David Robinson. I tell you, however, that in order to truly understand the legend of Arvydas Sabonis, you have to go back. I mean way, way back.

Let's begin this odyssey in 1981. Sabonis was 17, and playing in the European Championship for Cadets. His Soviet Union team went undefeated, winning all seven games by a combined margin of 241 points. Young Sabonis averaged 17 points per game, but unfortunately we have no records of rebounds, assists or blocks until years later. Plus, unless you happened to have been watching in person in 1981, we really have very little good video of a young, healthy Sabonis. We have some grainy and undated film of Sabonis looking like a young, athletic center with dark Larry Bird hair shooting one of four shots- a three off the catch, a turnaround midrange jumper, a practically un-blockable sky hook, or a monster dunk. We can gather a few things from this film, one being he wasn't always the slow and pudgy guy that hobbled around the court in a Portland uniform in the late nineties. He was once a super athlete, with a pair of quick feet to go along with his incredible size and bodybuilder strength.

Let's move forward to our next spot on the timeline (big thanks to chile2011.fiba.com for this). It's now the 1983 World Championship for Junior Men, and an 18.5 year old Sabonis is the Soviet Union's undoubted star. He leads the team in scoring with 18.5 points per game, and averages 23.5 points per game against the eventual champion United States (the Soviets finished second against a USA team that featured Kenny Walker and Larry Krystkowiak). Well okay, you say, but that's for Junior Men. What could he do against real men? Let's take a look at the 1983 European Championship for Men. Sabonis again led his team in scoring with 17.7 per game, despite being the youngest player on the Soviet Union's roster by five to ten years. Also keep in mind that Sabonis' field goal percentage hasn't dipped below 60% even once. In Sabonis' final game of the tournament, he scored 28 points on 10/12 shooting from the field. He was completely dominant in European play, despite being so young playing against older, more experienced veterans.

Sabonis and his Soviet team continued to be a force to be reckoned with, bowling through the 1984 European Olympic Qualifying Tournament and 1985 European Championship for men, winning both while scoring an average of 15.3 and 20.1 points per game, respectively. Now, 1985 is an extremely interesting year in the story of Arvydas. The Atlanta Hawks were considered one of the teams at the forefront of the international athlete boom, and decided to take a crazy risk and reach blindly behind the iron curtain attempting to snag Sabonis. According to Stan Kasten (courtesy of sports.vice.com),  "Sabonis was widely regarded as the greatest basketball player in the world at that time." Okay, hold up. After reading and processing the implications of this (considering this is 1985 and guys like MJ, Kareem, Magic, Bird, Hakeem, Dr. J, Isiah Thomas, and Moses Malone were all active in the NBA), you may question just how honest was Los Angeles Dodgers CEO (and former Hawks GM) Stan Kasten being when he said "greatest...in the world". If you say maybe he was just talking about centers, I will direct you towards Kareem, Hakeem, Moses Malone, and Robert Parish, who were all technically "in the world" at the time. Okay, you say, maybe he was just talking about that draft class. If that were true, his statement would still include guys like Patrick Ewing, Karl Malone and Chris Mullin. So clearly, regardless of whatever stipulations are put on Kasten's statement, it's still an obvious compliment from someone who really knows sports and a good young athlete. Now, this is Sabonis' first chance to come to America and play in the NBA. Unfortunatly, he wasn't quite 21 yet (in those days the old rule about having to be of the most recent college graduating class or older was still hanging on), and since he was unlucky enough to share his draft year with the arrival of the legendary (expletive) David Stern, his choice was voided. Atlanta honestly didn't know Sabonis wasn't 21 yet, and it deferred the drafting of Sabonis another year. Imagine if Sabonis had been allowed to come to Atlanta in 1985, the kind of team they would have had. A 26 year old Dominique Wilkins (who was already scoring 30 points per game at the time), a rookie Spud Webb, a 24 year old Doc Rivers,  a 23 year old Kevin Willis, and Sabonis, all maturing together. The Hawks had won 50 games in 1985, despite their best shooter (Randy Wittman) making only five threes on the year. Wilkins was shooting .186 from long range, and not one player on that team averaged at least one three point attempt per game. If Sabonis comes over at almost 21, he's instantly the team's best shooter. Any team that can win 50 games without much experience or shooting ability (and 57 the next year with only one player shooting over 30% from long range) would have been instant title contenders if they added a skilled and experienced (but still young) Arvydas Sabonis. But, they didn't, so let's not harp on that for too much longer.

Sabonis averaged 15.3 points in the 1986 World Championship for Men, and topped that average in the final against the United States by scoring 16 in a duel with David Robinson (the Soviets actually lost that one, which wasn't a familiar feeling for Sabonis). This was the last event Sabonis played at near 100% (he had been hurt before, but nothing career threatening). While running up the stairs to answer the phone (thank you nytimes.com for this little detail), he ruptured his Achilles tendon. The return to "routine activities" usually takes 4-6 months (clearly, however, being Arvydas Sabonis was far from routine". He rehabbed the injury in Portland, who had drafted him in the first round in 1986 and crossed their fingers that they could wrestle him away from the Soviet Union, but he was rushed back into action after only 2-3 months. And not just any action. He was rushed back into the Seoul Olympics in 1988. He still managed to average 13.3 points, 11.1 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game (this is the first event in which we have more detailed stats), and led his team to a Gold (knocking out the USA and Yugoslavia in the process). While he was third on the team in scoring, he was probably the most important player on the team, as his 13/11/2 line was (to me, anyway) more powerful than an 18/2/2 line (held by Raimondas Marciulionis, the team's leading scorer). He wasn't just the leader of his team, he was also (apparently) the life of the party. The ever fun Sabonis supposedly got into a drinking contest somewhere in the Olympic Village, and was, (cough, cough) "unavailable" for the gold medal ceremony (his request after his first two a day practice with Portland many years later consisted of one word: beer).

Sabonis averaged 16.4 points in the 1989 European Championship for Men (again, we go back to having no other stats), but he was a very limited version of his early eighties dominant self that shattered backboards like Shaq (if you don't believe me, look it up). The USSR ground him (and his legs) to a pulp, and it left him a shadow of the all-powerful giant he once was. Just because he was a shadow, however, didn't mean he couldn't still go out and play like one of the best. He averaged 23.3 points, 13.5 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1 steal, and 3.6 blocks per game for Forum Valladolid of the Liga ACB in Spain in 1989-90, while shooting over 40% from three point range. Keep in mind, Sabonis has the foot speed of Frankenstein by now with all of his overuse leg injuries (and unfortunately, cut his legendary mullet). By the time the 1992 Olympics rolled around, the Soviet Union had fallen and Sabonis was set to be the star player for the Lithuanian National Team. He was once again on the top of his team's scoring list, with a stud-like average of 23.9/12.5/1.8. Somehow, despite being ravaged by injuries, Sabonis was still able to be a dominant international force. He led the Lithuanians to a bronze finish in both the 1992 and 1996 Olympics, with perhaps his greatest international performance ever in the 1995 European Championship for Men, where he averaged 22.3 points, 13.3 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game. Also, his Liga ACB stardom has been running concurrently with these tournaments (he finished his 6 year career there with averages over 20 points, 12 rebounds and 2 assists per game).

Let's go right to the 1995-96 NBA season, the one that finally saw the "debut" of "rookie" Arvydas Sabonis (a laughable moniker for a guy as weathered as him). Sabonis did exactly what was expected of him as a 30 year old rookie. Play around 24 minutes off the bench, average about 15/8/2, and be a veteran presence (and oh, I almost forgot, shoot 37.5% from long range at 7'3.5"). He actually averaged over 23 points per game in the 95-96 playoffs for Portland. Sabonis was inexplicably exciting to watch for someone who ran like he was trying to keep his legs from imploding (mostly because he was). His passes were so flashy, always going around his head, behind his back, and NEVER looking at who he was passing to. He could still throw down some dunks as well, with a legendary reverse jam that looked like a flashback to that grainy, Russian narrated film from the eighties (except this was grainy, Bill Walton narrated film from the nineties). His best season in the NBA came in 1997-98, where he finished with a line of 16/10/3 and made 73 starts for Portland. He also finished his career with a Win Shares per 48 minutes of .200, which is equal to that of Wilt Chamberlain (basketball-reference.com).

Arvydas Sabonis continued to suit up for various teams (including one he owned) after his NBA retirement in 2003. He actually had some pretty good seasons. But, he eventually hung it up for good, leaving behind the ever rare "what could have been" Hall of Fame legacy. When you are a Hall of Famer, usually you "hit all of your lights" so to speak, and realized your full potential. Sabonis is in the Hall of Fame because he deserves it. He is a legend in the game of basketball. But, we will never really know just how high on the list of greatest big men in NBA history he would have gotten. I personally think he could have been one of the greatest of all time. But, this article is about him being the most skilled big ever. Brian Mazique (@UniqueMazique) said "[Sabonis] would've been an all-time great in the NBA had he arrived in his 20s," and "he was the greatest passing big man I ever saw." Now that I've made my case, let me know what you think. Tweet me @hoover__26 or drop your opinion in the comment box below. As for my final thoughts, if you've made it this far, congratulations. I hope you know more about Arvydas Sabonis than when you began reading this. If not, the public must be more informed than I thought. But if that was true, would he be so underappreciated (the player who the NBA, the government, and the people of America campaigned to acquire, and the Russian government dare not give up)? I certainly hope not.

T.J. McConnell: The Next Generation of Great Point Guards?

Pure point guard. You hear the term so often in today's NBA, but what does it even mean? Is it a ball distributor who looks for the pass first, and all else later? If so, then you could say Ben Simmons is a "pure point guard" despite the fact that he's 6'10" and may not even play point guard in a real game. Is it an offensive facilitator, who does what is necessary for his team to score points? That may sound like the same thing, but the difference between the two is the distributor proactively looks to get his teammates good looks at the basket on every possession, while the facilitator allows his teammates to by default get good looks by being an active threat. If a "pure point guard" is an offensive facilitator, then you could call Stephen Curry one of the purest in the business, despite the fact that he often takes deep jumpers off the dribble. Is a pure point guard someone who CAN do it all, but chooses to work his teammates into the offense whenever he can? One example a lot of people have brought up is Chris Paul, and he more than likely falls closer to that last example. When I asked the public about this, I got responses like "always looks for the pass, selective shooting" (first example), "able to lead a team on both sides of the floor...able to distribute and shoot as well as defend." (second example), and "runs the floor, sets up teammates, takes care of the ball" (closer to the first example). The most common player comparisons were Chris Paul, John Wall, Rajon Rondo, John Stockton, Steve Nash, Mike Conley, Tony Parker, and Damian Lillard (listed in order of most mentioned). Why am I asking this question? Well, because there is a young man playing for Philadelphia that just may be the exact definition of "pure point guard". T.J. McConnell is one of the most willing and talented passers in the game, shot nearly 35% from long range in his rookie season, and was 10th in the league in steals per 48 minutes last season (espn.com). But, since I know the burden of proof is on me to provide adequate statistics and observations in order for you to join me as a McConnell believer, I will certainly not stop there.

Another trait of a real pure point guard is "someone who can make every pass with ease". If you need proof that McConnell can do that, watch the video I will end this article with. If having the "ability to pass from anywhere, selective 3pt shooting and arsenal of mid range moves to get off shots" is also a key part, then McConnell fits that bill as well. He shot nearly 52% from within 16 feet last season, and despite being a solid long range shooter, attempted less than a fifth of his shots from long range. For reference, Kemba Walker (a career 33.4% three point shooter) has attempted more than 30% of his shots from three in his career. McConnell also has stats that top some of those "pure point guards" that were mentioned the most. McConnell finished 6th in the NBA in assists per 48 minutes, ahead of guys like Tony Parker, Damian Lillard, and Mike Conley. He also finished in the top 15 in assist/turnover ratio for point guards while guys like John Wall fell to the 20s. (courtesy of espn.com). McConnell also finished in the top 10 in assist percentage and finished above the Devensive Player of the Year Kawhi Leonard in steal percentage (basketball-reference.com). Sounds to me like McConnell's numbers and style fit perfectly with the "passing and defense" mold of a pure point guard. And if guys like CP3 and John Wall can be All-Stars and elite players, why not T.J.? Let's just say, for argument's sake, that McConnell continues to improve and eventually (say his 3rd or 4th season) gets in a situation where he is playing 28-32 minutes per game consistently. That's a feasible start to McConnell's career path, and it also happens to match Kyle Lowry's early career almost exactly. You can make the argument that McConnell was three years older than Lowry when he came into the league, but if you compare ages, you have to make a note of the following. Lowry averaged 13.5 points, 6.7 assists and 5.4 rebounds per 36 minutes in his age 23 season, with many years of NBA experience already. In McConnell's rookie season (also his age 23 season), he averaged 11.1 points, 8.2 assists and 5.6 rebounds per 36 minutes (courtesy of basketball-reference.com). If Lowry went on to be a an All-Star, what is stopping T.J. McConnell from ascending to that height?

Earlier in the article, I promised that I would show you a video that proves just how good T.J. McConnell has already become. Not being one to disappoint, here is that video...

Enjoy. If you agree, disagree, or just have a comment in general, drop that in the comments section or on my Twitter account, @hoover__26. Thanks!

The Case For: Al Jefferson

First off, NBA contracts have been nuts this year. I know, I know, a new precedent has been set for contracts in sports. But, two guys who I don't even count as top 5 in their position have both received the largest contracts in their leagues' history. However, in the middle of all of this money flying around, the Indiana Pacers have made a move that has gotten so few kudos yet may be one of the most important moves of free agency.

Al Jefferson is on the back end of a historic career, no arguing that. His stats last year were the lowest he's had since his Boston days (the first few years of his career). He was injured and suspended, and was only able to play in 47 games last season (averaging only 23.3 minutes per game). However, he still turned in a respectable line of 12/6.4/1.5 heading into a contract year, and signed a 3 year, 30 million dollar deal with Indiana. While 10 million a year for a 31 year old big man with nagging injuries and off the court concerns may sound high, consider the salaries of a few other freshly inked players. Joakim Noah is making 18 million a year with the Knicks, coming off an injury filled age 31 season in which he scored less than five points per game. Courtney Lee is making 12.5 million a year. Jared Dudley is making 10 million a year. Joe Johnson is making 11 million a year. Anthony Tolliver is making 8 million a year. Now, Tolliver is an interesting example. According to spotrac.com, Tolliver has made between $41,854 and $3,000,000 in salary every year of his career. However, despite being the same age as Jefferson (and having a line of 5.3/3.2/0.7), is going to be making 2 2/3 times more than he was the previous year. While he may not have the injury concerns like Al, he has been consistently and considerably worse than Al his entire career and isn't getting any better. So, using that logic, Al (who made $13,500,000 last season) should be making at least 15-20 million this season with the inflation of contracts, right? Nope.

Another thing to consider is, Al is only two years removed from his last 20/10 season. His offensive rating, defensive rating, win shares per forty minutes, and true shooting percentage all improved from 2014-15 to 2015-16 (basketball-reference.com). I honestly don't care one bit about his suspension and fine last season for what was called "A violation of the Anti-Drug program" or "PEDs" (come on now, we all know what it was, don't play it up like he was popping HGH or doing heroin in an alley). If Al can come into next season more healthy than he was last season, I see no reason for him not to finish with a line around 15/8/2 if he gets at least 28 minutes per game. For $10,000,000 a year, I'd call that a steal considering the team's lack of experience in the post. Also, if you estimate Big Classic will at a minimum score as many points as he did last year (which he will top, I am sure of that), Indiana is paying him $17,793 per point. The other Al, Al Horford (who just signed a deal with Boston) would be paid $22,683 per point if he repeated his previous season.

With the great signing of Al Jefferson, Indiana just further solidifies their place as a favorite for a top 5 seed in the east. Honestly, with the addition of Jeff Teague, the dominance of Paul George, the development of Myles Turner, the great drafting of Larry Bird and company, and the signing of Al Jefferson, this is a team that could be finding themselves in a place to make a run at a spot in the finals.