MLB Free Agency Update 2014 #2

Just as I predicted, Melky Cabrera just signed a big contract with the Chicago White Sox. For those who didn't believe me, I told you so! Just kidding.  None the less, The White Sox could be serious contenders next season with the signing of Melky, Zach Duke, Adam LaRoche and others.  The Twins and Red Sox have also done quite well this off-season, signing some big deals. Cabrera signed a 3 year, 42 million dollar deal, which puts him on a team with lots of potential for the next few years.  Free Agency has been good to baseball fans in Chicago, as Jon Lester and Jason Hammel will greatly help the Cubs rotation.  Check back soon for more!

Too Many Basketballs?

For a while now, I have been wondering why the Cleveland Cavaliers haven't done better this year.  I mean, they have LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, Shawn Marion, Anderson Varejao and Dion Waiters, among others.  How could they possibly fail with all these stars?  Well, so far they have not really impressed.
Their winning percentage doesn't crack the top ten, and it's even worse than the 7th seed in the west. So, I began to wonder why this was happening.  Then, as I was hanging a Johan Santana ornament on my tree, it hit me.  The "Too-Much-Talent" effect!  What is the "Too-Much-Talent" effect, you ask?  It is a theory that talent improvements only lead to performance improvements to a point, where it then has a negative effect. This idea has been supported by multiple studies, but only in dependent sports like basketball and soccer. The theory states that when a team has too many dominant players, they stop focusing on overall team performance and cohesion, and start jostling and competing for individual dominance.  This becomes a problem for teams when an increasingly large payroll doesn't translate to a better record, as is generally assumed.  That could be the problem with the Cavs, as LeBron wants to take over and be the "king", like he did in Miami and in his first Cleveland stint.  Then you have Love, who was used to being the lone great on a generally poor team.  The same is true with Irving, who was already in Cleveland before they assembled this mega-team. When you put all of this together, you have a talented yet dysfunctional group that is coming in way under the predictions.  So, if there is a scientifically proven talent line that, when crossed, creates a decline in team performance, then could that line be used to better put together rosters?  What if, in the not so far off future, owners and GMs are making choices to sign or trade players so they can fill their team's "talent storage" to the max, without overfilling it?  It is possible, because the stats that were used in the studies are available to pretty much everyone. Maybe teams like the Spurs, Suns and Mavericks have it right.  You can win more games with teamwork than you can stars.  Think about that!     

2014 MLB Free Agency Update

In a previous post, I talked about four players who I thought were going to make a splash in free agency this off-season. As of now, two of them have landed big deals. Zach Duke, the 31 year old left handed reliever I spoke of, just agreed to a 3 year $15 million dollar deal with the Chicago White Sox. Duke made only $850,000 last year with the Brewers. I predict that he will greatly help the White Sox bullpen next season. Also, the 35 year old first basemen Adam LaRoche agreed to a 2 year $25 million dollar contract, also with the White Sox. Look for LaRoche's power hitting to help the White Sox contend next year. We are still waiting for Melky Cabrera and Aaron Harang to get deals, but I suspect that Melky may also go to the White Sox. The White Sox are looking for an outfielder who could start in left field, and have expressed some interest in Cabrera.  

                       Check back for more posts!  

NBA's Third Best Player?

Recently, ESPN released an article on the subject of the third best player in the NBA.  The article stated that LeBron James is the best, Kevin Durant is the second, and Chris Paul is third.  To come to this conclusion, 30 NBA executives were polled.  The players that were voted for were Chris Paul, Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose, Tony Parker, Anthony Davis, Blake Griffin, Joakim Noah, Kevin Love and Paul George.  After George was removed because of an injury, there were nine players left.  To eliminate certain players, a few different stats were used.  One was Real Plus-Minus, or RPM.  RPM measures a player's impact on team performance, with other things taken into account. Some say that this stat is a bit unreliable, as certain player's numbers do not show their real value to a team.  Anyway, two other stats that were used were Win Shares per 48 Minutes, or WS/48, and Player Efficiency Rating, or PER.  Using PER and WS/48, Tony Parker, Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook were eliminated from the guard bracket, and Griffin and Noah from the big man bracket. This left Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, Anthony Davis and Kevin Love. They then turned to RPM to eliminate Curry and Davis.  Then, Love met Paul in the finals.  In the finals, Paul topped Love in Career Net Rating.  So Paul is obviously the winner, right?  Not so fast.  The executives completely omitted Dirk Nowitzki from the poll.  If you compare Dirk's RPM to Love's, the answer is surprising: Dirk tops Love's 5.06 with a 6.35 of his own.  Also Dirk's .199 WS/48 is in the top 10, and beats two vote-getting "bigs".  Plus, if you factor in True Shooting Percentage, which gives an increased value to three pointers and incorporates free throws, Dirk makes an even stronger case.  Last season, CP3 ranked #65 in the league in True Shooting, and so far this year he is #126.  Dirk, however, ranked number #26 last year and #6 this year.  Dirk's career regular season Points Per Game, Rebounds Per Game and Blocks Per Game all beat Paul's numbers.  Paul leads in Steals Per Game and Assists Per Game.  Field Goal, Free Throw and 3 Point Percentages in the regular season all go to Dirk. Huh?  This is starting to look like a close race for the #3 spot.  Chris Paul is a great player, as is Kevin Love.  In fact, all of the players who received votes are worthy of being called great.  But, that doesn't mean that others can't also be contenders.  So who is the third best player in the NBA?  You tell me. 

MLB Free Agency 2014

                 MLB Free Agency 2014

After an MLB season that included a few heartbreaking upsets, a shocking postseason run and a World Series that ended with an MVP pitching performance, it’s finally time for free agency. However, I’m not going to talk about all the huge free agent names that have been gone over so many times. Today, we’ll take a look at and evaluate some of the 2014 MLB free agents that could have a huge impact on their future team. 

1.      Melky Cabrera

     Despite the hanging questions about a past PED suspension, Melky had a solid season this past year.  The 30 year old outfielder with one of the best strikeout ratings in baseball will make a great addition, wherever he goes.  With 16 homers and an above .300 batting average last season, he has received a lot of interest from teams like Kansas City, who are in desperate need of an outfielder with power and consistency.  At this time, the Royals have three outfielders testing the free agent waters (Josh Willingham, Norichika Aoki and Raul Ibanez), all of them having a lower batting average and less home runs than Melky last season.  However, his decreased speed and pinkie finger surgery will bring up some questions.  Can he still play center field?  Can he stay healthy?  Even with these questions, Melky should still get a sizable contract, whether it is from Toronto, Kansas City or elsewhere. 

2.      Zach Duke

      This left handed relief pitcher is one of the most underrated in this free agent class.  Duke posted a K per 9 innings ration of 11.44 with the Brewers last season, and he could be signed this off-season for pennies compared to a few big ticket relievers.  The 31 year old former All Star’s 2.45 ERA through 58.2 innings will catch your eye, as will his 0.463 Home Runs per 9 innings pitched.  Zach Duke is someone to keep an eye on next year, wherever he may be.

3.      Aaron Harang

     Aaron Harang was a huge surprise last season, starting 33 games and going 12-12.  Look for the 36 year old Harang to land a sizable deal this year, larger than the 1 million he made last year with Atlanta.  Harang doesn’t have blow-by velocity on his fastball, which averaged about 89 MPH last year, but he is a crafty veteran with a deceptive motion, and he could end up in any number of places.  The Kansas City Royals and Houston Astros, to name a few, would be good spots for Harang, as a relatively low priced starter with 12 years experience and the ability to set career lows in ERA and go 200 plus innings doesn’t come up that often.  Aaron Harang could make a big splash in this year’s market.

4.      Adam LaRoche

      

     Adam LaRoche is a powerful hitter.  He hit 26 homers last year and has hit 243 in his 10 year MLB Career.  His defense is solid, but not great and his base-running is a question.  LaRoche put up a .259 batting average in 140 regular season games last season, and he may be the most consistently powerful hitter in this free agent class.  However, his relatively poor stats against lefties and an old shoulder injury could hurt his chance at a big money deal.  LaRoche is expected to land a decent contract this year, as the 35 year old could get a contract totaling 30 plus million dollars.