Body Type Evaluation
At first glance, you might think Durant is far and away more gifted as far as a body goes than a guy out of Marshall you probably never heard of. I mean, if he looked like Durant in any way, you surely would have seen him (especially in the age of YouTube highlight reels), right? Well, what if I told you that Penava, a four time national champion with the Bosnian National Team, managed to slipped through the very thin cracks of youth basketball stardom and play three years at Marshall without anyone noticing just who he plays like? One thing’s for sure; the body comparison is not lost on Marshall’s head coach, or Penava himself, who have both been quoted making the comparison. The 20 year old Penava has matured in to a long, 6’9” body with 220 pounds of muscle, not unlike Durant’s 6’9”, 215 pound listing in college (and yes, I know Durant listings have always been screwed up, but we can only use what was written down). However, one glaring difference comes up when you compare Penava’s body to Durant’s; Penava LOOKS strong. Durant was a deceptively strong player, his twiggy body hiding the potential to hold his own on NBA courts against much more built players. In contrast, Penava has a proud chest and visible cut on his slender arms. Take from that what you will, but Penava’s body looks more like Durant after years with NBA weight training, minus the extra height Durant added. Both are explosive, and often flash both long and short twitch muscles, which is a major plus. Penava can stride down the court in transition with the best of them, but also demonstrate Clint Capela-like abilities, crossing the lane in a flash to block a shot. Frame wise, Penava has the look of a slightly shorter, slightly stronger Durant, which is certainly one heck of a body to have.
Statistical Analysis
In this arena, there are clear overlaps between the two outputs despite drastically different roles. Per 40 minutes, Durant averaged 28.8 points, 12.4 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 2.1 steals, and 2.1 blocks in his lone season at Texas (sports-reference.com). In comparison, Penava is averaging 22.8 points, 15.9 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.6 steals, and 5.8 blocks per 40 minutes in his Junior year. Just by looking at this, you would think Penava was more of a traditional big man that Durant, a positionless freak athlete who can fill up every part of a stat sheet. However, when you look back at their body types, you realize someone built like these two are would likely be hard pressed to put up those kind of numbers against centers every night (even the sometimes subpar centers you might find playing in the Conference USA). Rather, Penava possesses a wildly diverse skill set, which allows him to record these Durant-like stats. Minus the scoring, which can be explained away by a considerably lower usage percentage than Durant had at Texas, Penava’s numbers are comparable and in fact better than many of Durant’s, albeit against a completely different schedule. According to sports-reference.com, Texas’ strength of schedule in the 2006-2007 season was 5.12 points above average, while Marshall’s current SOS sits at 2.3 points below. So, take these numbers with a grain of salt. In the arena of shooting, in which Durant has become one of the best, Penava is shooting 37.7% this season to Durant’s college number of 40.4%. However, given his role on the team, Penava’s numbers from three are still astounding. Consider this; only two players since the 1992 season have blocked at least four shots per game while shooting at least three long range shots per game in NCAA Division I, those two being the late Eddie Griffin (a Seton Hall legend whose life and career were tragically cut short) and Penava so far this season (with Penava shooting the higher percentage from three).
Film Evaluation
A couple things before I begin. When I first discovered Penava, I was trolling the NCAA statistical rankings for a mock draft when I came across the blocks list, headed by one Ajdin Penava out of Marshall. My first thought was, “he’s probably just a Mike Daum; a big, slow guy with little future outside of low level Division I stardom.” Then, I watched some game tape, and my jaw dropped. Then, a thought came up; what if I did a prospect comparison for him, since they were my most popular posts (especially my Wes Washpun one, which spread like wildfire)? So I set my mind to finding the NBA player that Penava reminded me the most of. It took me about five minutes to figure it out. As I learned from one of the top high school coaches in the nation (the man who coached Luol Deng, among others), Kevin Durant does not have exceptional ball handling skills. In fact, it might boggle your mind how he gets past so many elite defenders on the break. The answer, crazy as it is, is that he has one elite piece of footwork that takes countless hours to perfect. The secret to Durant’s herky-jerky fastbreak success is a misdirection crossover, which looks nothing like the killer crossovers or massive, swinging dribble moves you think about breaking ankles. It involves very carefully avoiding dribbling off your front toe while misrepresenting your momentum in such a way that a defender is hopelessly confused as to which side you are going to attack. Stepping one way while crossing the other, and keeping your footing, is an extremely underrated skill. Penava has this rare move in his arsenal, making him a nightmare with the ball in his hands once he gets moving. Not only does he have freakish athleticism, and shoot the ball with consistency, but he carries himself so much like Durant with the ball in his hands it’s actually a little scary. The second thing I want to make clear is that I made this comparison before I knew Penava and his coach had made the very same one, and it was not until I started doing more research that I discovered that reassuring fact (it’s nice to know you aren’t completely insane). Penava and Durant even share some similar weaknesses, with Penava having a tendency to not initiate contact with a offensive player when they are backing him towards the basket; a tendency that strength and confidence can easily remedy. Penava isn’t a Dragan Bender or Zhou Qi type prospect, with an amazing body and elite flashes but fundamental deficiencies that take huge amounts of time, effort and coaching to reverse. Rather, he’s a sound player with a top notch body and a myriad of ways to use his athleticism and skills. Sound familiar?
Final Thoughts
I’m sold. I’m not trying to DeShawn Stevenson and anoint Peneva the next king of modern basketball, but I will say this...I would take him in the first round. Pretty good for a guy who I’ve never seen on a mock draft at any spot (aside from the 59th spot on a 60 man Fansided big board from The Step Back). He plays freakishly like a young Durant, and in some ways even exceeds some things scouts thought KD was lacking when the consensus placed Greg Oden over him in his draft. While he isn’t as much of a dynamic scorer, his shooting isn’t quite what Durant had at that age (Durant was 19 when he made his NBA debut; Penava is almost 21 now), and his playstyle may not grab your eye as much, but believe me, Ajdin Penava is the real deal, and deserves the Kevin Durant comparison more than anyone in college basketball.
