Howdy NBA Draft fans and interested readers, welcome to my most recent collection of thoughts, ramblings, and comparisons for this year's NBA Draft! Now, this year's draft is so mixed-up, interesting, and flat-out confusing, I'm going to stray from my normal path of making a pre-draft big board or mock and jump into some of the player comparisons that you readers have found interesting in the past. As always, any comments, questions, ideas, wisecracks, criticisms, or whatever you have to say can be dropped below in the comment section or posed to me on Twitter using the handle @hoover__26 or hashtag #HooverSportsTalk. Now that all this is out of the way, off we go!
Frank Ntilikina is a longer Jrue Holiday
Normally when a prospect like Ntilikina comes along, people have either not heard of him or not seen him play with their own eyes. However, with the NBA fan base becoming more in touch with international play every day, this year's foreign mystery man isn't quite the mystery he would have been as recent as a few years ago. The 6'5" point guard from Belgium averaged 5.1 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 1.4 assists in 18.6 minutes per game for his French professional team Strasboug, which plays in the Pro A league. From the film I've watched, Ntilikina is insanely long (with a wingspan of almost seven feet) and very quick, with top notch vision and a jump shot that was questionable early on, but Ntilikina has quelled many of those concerns with insane shooting outbursts in recent performances (such as the FIBA U18 Championships). Holiday is 6'4", and while he weighs in at about 30 pounds more than Ntilikina and isn't quite as long, he has shown some of the same characteristics in his NBA career. Holiday is one of the NBA's premiere passers, with an Assist Percentage of 36.6% in his four years in New Orleans (basketball-reference.com), and has also shown the ability to score, with a career average of 14.3 points per game. Some of the concerns many scouts have with Ntilikina also coincide with some struggles that Holiday has had in his career. Being so thin, there are some questions as to if Ntilikina will be able to finish over stronger defenders at the next level. Holiday's shooting percentage of 57.7% within three feet of the basket could be considered subpar, as it falls below players such as Chris Paul, Stephen Curry, and Isaiah Thomas (in fact, it barely tops 5'9" Nate Robinson's career number). In addition, despite Holiday's overall strong shooting, his jumper has sometimes been called a "knuckleball", a moniker which could be given to Ntilikina on occasion as well. As a whole, these two players compare very well, and considering Holiday is a former All-Star, Ntilikina has a bright future ahead (if he can add some muscle and continue to improve, which I suspect he can).
Jayson Tatum is a smarter Gerald Wallace
One of the draft's biggest enigmas, and most polarizing players, is Duke's Jayson Tatum. I did a quick scouting report on Tatum in late January on Twitter, before I saw his March Madness performances, and I basically said the following: he can't shoot, his athleticism doesn't shine in a very athletic draft, he's a "ballhog", and he wastes a ton of motion, but he has a very nice frame and an almost European set of moves that are very polished. I gave him a late lottery grade, but said that was subject to change. Then I watched March Madness, and it changed. Tatum finished the season shooting 34.2% from long distance, and showed some very nice range on occasion. He also flashed some very smooth handles, despite the fact that, as I said, he wastes some motion. Defensively, he has a strong base on his 6'8", 205 pound frame, and can use that to hold down the fort on different types of offensive players. This all reminds me of Gerald Wallace, who was a bit more athletic that Tatum as far as pure distance leaping goes (Tatum can more than hold his own with a strong lift under the basket, but he won't be trying any free throw line dunks any time soon), but didn't quite have the polish that Tatum has at such a young age. Perhaps it was because Wallace came out of Alabama, a school that was known for producing very athletic players at the time, but Gerald rarely showed a consistent jumper or a myriad of crafty moves going to the basket. However, that didn't stop him from leading the league in steals one year, or being named to an All-Star team after posting an 18/10/2 line (that was the one year Wallace shot the ball with confidence, shooting about 37% from long range). Despite the fact that he laid an egg in Brooklyn after they traded their entire future for a package that included him, Wallace still finished his career as one of the better defensive players of his era, and topped 100 million in career contract earnings. Tatum has the potential, if he rounds out his game, to be a very similar player to Wallace, and perhaps even better. Tatum can already shoot the ball better than Wallace did for most of his career (that isn't saying much, but still), and has a much more polished offensive game. If Tatum can learn how to transition his game to the next level, and work hard on his weaknesses, I can see this comparison coming to fruition in the NBA.
Before we begin with this one, if you have never seen Marcus Keene play, I took the liberty of including film of his 50 (yes, 50) point game against Miami (OH) above (just click on his name). If you have, you know just how incredible Central Michigan's leading scorer (and college basketball's leading scorer for that matter) was in the NCAA. He finished his junior season, his first with the Chippewas (he played his first two seasons at Youngstown State in the Horizon conference), with averages of 30 points, 4.9 assists, and 4.5 rebounds per game on 44.7% from the field and 36.8% from three. Despite these eye-popping numbers, Keene has been overlooked by many as an NBA prospect due to his diminutive stature (listed at 5'11" and 160 pounds on sports-reference.com and 5'9" and 175 pounds on DraftExpress) and lack of competition (Keene played in the Mid-American Conference, which yielded only first-round loser Kent State in the NCAA Tournament). In addition to playing in a below average conference, Keene's team was in the bottom of the barrel even in the MAC. Central Michigan finished at 6-12, allowing 89.9 points per game (which is, needless to say, absolutely atrocious). However, that isn't entirely Keene's fault. Keene was the only player on Central Michigan to lead the MAC in any offensive or defensive stat, besides rotation guard Josh Kozinski who led the conference in Turnover Percentage. You could compare Keene to former Oakland star and second round draft pick Kay Felder as an undersized, small-school point guard with massive scoring numbers, but that would be flawed. Keene attempted over 10 three point shots per game last season, while Felder was a more traditional point guard in the Oakland system (he still played quite a bit of offense by himself, but not to the extent of Keene). In addition, Felder was a bowling ball going to the lane, weighing in at 5-20 pounds heavier that Keene on a shorter frame. Keene relied more on his "in the gym range" and ability to create separation and draw fouls on the inside to get his points, which worked out well in college. The way he plays the game reminds me of a skinner Ty Lawson, who shot the ball very well early in his career and once was top ten in free throws made per game. Now, the issue of assists may be a bit of a gap between the two players, but remember Lawson averaged only 0.9 assists more for his college career than Keene had in his final season (the only one we can really count). Defensively, Keene may not be the player Lawson was in college, but hopefully much of that will come with added size and the freedom to be more aggressive on defense, as Central Michigan could not afford to have Keene pick up unnecessary fouls. In addition, Lawson never had a Defensive Plus/Minus above -0.7 in his NBA career. Don't sleep on Marcus Keene this year, even though he may not be a high pick, he could sneak up on you at the next level.
Terrance Ferguson is Terrence Ross. Or Ray Allen.
Yes, that's a big gap. We're talking about a guy with a career line of 11/3/1 whose Turnover Percentage is higher than his Rebound, Assist, Block, and Steal Percentage, against a guy who has a 99.9% chance of being a Hall of Famer (according to basketball-reference.com). But, Ferguson is worth it. He's an strange prospect, passing on a college career at Arizona to play professional ball in Australia. He's 6'7" and very thin, but has incredible athleticism and can jump through the roof on one foot. He is also an elite shooter, which he has shown on multiple stages. However, he's more than just a traditional shooter. He has the ability to stop quickly and get off a shot, as well as shoot off the catch, as he keeps a great rhythm and doesn't waste motion. This sounds quite a bit like a young Ray Allen, who (despite being a bit shorter and stronger) was also an elite shooter (perhaps the best ever) and once a top-notch leaper. It also sounds like a young Terrence Ross, who shot the ball well in college and could out-jump almost anyone. Obviously, though, those two careers didn't turn out exactly the same. So, what signs do we have to tell us if Ferguson is a boom or a bust? Well, he certainly has the confidence to make it big in the NBA. In games he started for the Adelaide 36ers, they went 14-3, and he had five games with more than one three pointer made. However, it wasn't all good, as he failed to record more than three rebounds in any one game during the season. If he could add some muscle (his weight is again spotty at best, as I have seen him at anywhere between 170 and 190), and keep improving his IQ and rebounding skills, T-Ferg could be a real stud. If not, he's a 3 and D player with unlimited leaping ability but maybe not enough craftiness to show it off in games. Either way, I don't see a problem with using a lottery pick on this guy.
