The 2017 NFL draft is right around the corner, and it's time for me to weigh in (at least officially, as I have been putting my two cents in on Twitter using the handle @hoover__26) on the great quarterback debate. I will judge my top quarterbacks in the categories of physical tools, intangibles, and NFL readiness. Without further adieu, let's jump in.
1. Deshaun Watson, Junior, Clemson
Physical Tools:
Watson is listed at 6'2" and 221lbs, which is solid but not what you would call a prototype athletic quarterback in the modern day NFL. He ran a 4.66 in the forty yard dash at the combine, which is very nice, but again not quite what you would call elite athleticism (for reference, Cam Newton ran a sub-4.6 at 6'5" and nearly 250lbs). As far as arm strength, Watson again is strong but not a huge standout. From the physical tools perspective, Watson could be graded as an above average guy with nice feet, a very smooth style of play, and very large hands, despite the fact that he doesn't jump off the page in any one area. Reminds me a bit of Donovan McNabb here.
Intangibles:
Watson is a winner, plain and simple. He led his Clemson team to two straight National Championship appearances, winning the second, and lost only one game in his final season at Clemson (a one point shocker to Pitt in which Watson threw the ball 70 times for 580 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions). While he sometimes had a hard time reading the safeties (as highlighted by Jon Gruden), which led to an unusually high interception count for such a highly ranked quarterback, much of those had to do less with Watson and more with some unfortunate miscommunications or tipped balls. He makes nice reads for the most part, and appears to have a very strong grasp of the game as well as a desire to improve and know as much as possible. His intangibles really set him apart as far as this quarterback class, and his future in the NFL.
NFL Readiness:
His NFL readiness is unmatched by any quarterback in this class. Despite the fact that he is only a junior, he has had an extremely large amount of experience playing in the limelight. He has a great head on his shoulders and should be able to fix any mechanical shortcomings that coaches at the next level may find. His vision should also improve quickly, as that is one of the few things holding him back from a readiness perspective. I have no doubts that Watson is the clear #1 quarterback in this draft.
2. Mitchell Trubisky, Redshirt Junior, North Carolina
Physical Tools:
Trubisky, despite being listed at the same height and only one pound heavier than Watson, has better muscular definition and a more durable upper body. His hands are a tad smaller than Watsons, but they aren't anything to be afraid of. He ran 0.01 seconds slower on the forty at the combine than Watson, and is very similar to Watson in that he has the ability to stand in and take hits as well as get moving outside the pocket. Trubisky's arm doesn't set any records but he won't cost you on most NFL throws, and he has a very nice release. Overall, a very solid athlete who has the muscular structure to hold up in the NFL, despite not being a top tier athlete at the next level.
Intangibles:
This is where it gets a little more murky for Mitchell. He has a great completion percentage and absolutely torched some defenses that Watson had a little trouble reading (such as Florida State), but he has only made 13 starts in his entire college career. He has very little experience, and despite the fact that he showed some great eyes, doesn't have very many data points to back up an educated evaluation. In addition, UNC's scheme could have bolstered his completion stats and lack of interceptions, which nonetheless are still very impressive. In addition, he had some inconsistencies during his lone season at the helm, including a loss to Virginia Tech in which he failed to reach even 60 yards passing on 33 attempts. Granted, the weather was atrocious that day and UNC was missing it's starting tailback, but it still serves as a huge low point that most other top quarterbacks don't have on their sheet.
NFL Readiness:
Trubisky may be the most talented quarterback in this draft, drawing comparisons to players like Matthew Stafford and Brett Favre, but his lack of experience and occasional duds serve as a dark cloud over his shining numbers. Overall, I think he needs some extra time to mature, but should still see a selection in the top half of the first round.
3. Brad Kaaya, Junior, Miami
Physical Tools:
At 6'4", you would hope to see a frame with a little more weight than 214lbs, but that is where Kaaya sits. He also didn't run a forty yard dash at the combine or his pro day due to some nagging toe issues which he now says are cleared up. So, as far as physical tools, we basically have what we can see on the tapes. From what I've watched, he isn't a very fluid player, but he has tremendous feet from under center and uses his height well to survey the field from the pocket. His season high in rushing yards is 3.4, which came in a systematic destruction of Pitt in which he threw for 356 yards and 4 touchdowns. He is not a runner, and therefore doesn't have the benefits of being a duel-threat guy, but also has less of the durability concerns that come with his skinnier frame. His arm is not very strong, and he doesn't have very much zip on his passes, but his scheme made up for much of that at Miami.
Intangibles:
By all accounts, Kaaya has a strong character and a great head on his shoulders when it comes to the game. Kaaya's scouting report reads like a Tom Brady report from back in his draft year, as he has questionable accuracy and strength on deep balls and even midrange throws that require some juice to get them into a window, and plays the game like a robot. However, he is extremely comfortable progressing through reads and often makes check down throws. His team hit a bit of a skid in the middle of the season, but he doesn't have any seriously concerning goose-eggs on his sheet like Trubisky. Overall, his intangibles are excellent for a kid who considered returning for his senior season amid concerns over readiness.
NFL Readiness:
Kaaya's arm may not be the most ready one in the draft, but it's been a while since I saw a mind that was more polished coming into the draft. If he lands in a system that doesn't need him to zip throws 25 yards downfield on every play, he could be an NFL ready guy on day one. His eyes and knowledge of different offenses rarely seen in college ball bring him to the #3 spot in this draft for me.
4. Patrick Mahomes, Junior, Texas Tech
Physical Tools:
The story for Mahomes is arm strength. Yes, he's 6'2" and 225lbs with smaller hands that could contribute to some nagging accuracy problems, but nobody really cares about that. Mahomes has quick feet and powerful legs getting out of the pocket despite his sluggish forty time, and has spread offense numbers that are beyond gaudy, but the big selling point for this gun-slinging QB is his cannon arm. Whether or not he can hit the broadside of a barn with that arm remains to be seen, but the very fact that he has a weapon like that will vault him up draft boards everywhere.
Intangibles:
Mahomes played in a phantom offense at Texas Tech that gives him very little mental preparation for the game at the next level, and his tawdry numbers may not translate well to the NFL. In-game experience is not a problem, as he saw his first starts as a true freshman, and almost threw for 600 yards in one of those games, but his lack of experience running an NFL-type offense could hurt him. He doesn't have any overly concerning performances this season, his worst being an 18 for 36 game against Iowa State in which his team lost by 56 points. His completion percentage is actually quite excellent, but that may not reflect his overall accuracy going forward. He has some natural accuracy on fluid throws, but his touch in tight windows will be put to the test as those windows get smaller against NFL corners. His combine deep balls also were not always on target, but that really doesn't tell the whole story. Overall, if a team is willing to bet that Mahomes can mature into a real offense and use his exceptional arm to make up for any shortcomings in touch, they could hit the lottery here.
NFL Readiness:
Mahomes may not be ready on day one, but he could end up the best quarterback to come out of this draft. He could also end up being a massive bust, but it all depends on how well he transitions from a spread offense and hones his arm talent.
5. Deshone Kizer, Redshirt Sophomore, Notre Dame
Physical Tools:
Kizer's physical tools are off the charts when compared to the other quarterbacks in this draft. He stands at 6'4" and weighs in at 233lbs, with massive hands and incredible muscular definition. He commented about having Cam Newton's body and Tom Brady's mind, both of which I will contend, but having Cam Newton's body is easily the closer of the two. He didn't run very well at the combine, clocking in at over 4.8 on the forty, but that doesn't mean much for a bruiser like Kizer. He has the arm to make every throw an NFL team could ask him to make, and showed some flashes of accuracy, but did occasionally struggle hitting his spot. His 9 for 26 effort against NC State was marred with some of the worst conditions I can remember in a football game, but he dipped under 55% in four other games this season. His feet aren't great on the dropback, and I noticed some hitches in his footwork, but physically Kizer is probably the best in this class.
Intangibles:
There are some major league questions here for Kizer. He didn't win very many games in college, he doesn't do a great job transitioning from his first look, and as I mentioned before he doesn't have great footwork. Many coaches and analysts have gone on record saying he should have stayed for another year at least, and I can't say I disagree. He needs to work quite a bit on running NFL offenses, and despite the fact that he may have a good grasp of the game, he could be easily exploited by defenses if he plays right away.
NFL Readiness:
Not very high. He has the physical tools, and a good coach can mold him, but I don't see him getting any real playing time in the next year or two with the mechanical issues and lack of experience. It wouldn't surprise me to see him go early just because of his body and arm, and he is a very nice piece to add behind an established quarterback, but there are plenty of issues for Kizer that have to be worked out.
