NBA Finals Preview

The NBA Finals are almost here, so I am here to present my NBA Finals preview. This year's series is between the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers. Who has the advantage? LeBron James and his hometown Cavs, or the MVP Stephen Curry and the Warriors? Well, let's break it down and find out.




1. The Stats
To start the breakdown of the team's stats, I go to True Shooting Percent (TS%), one of my favorite metric stats. Counting only the players who played at least 500 regular season minutes, the Warriors have a regular season average of .559 TS%. Compared to the Cavaliers' .543 TS%, it really is quite close, but the Warriors take that one by a nose. Another stat I like to look at is Defensive Win Shares (DWS). This stat shows exactly how much a player's defense contributed to the team's wins. The Cavaliers have a combined DWS of 17.3, again counting only those who played 500 regular season minutes. The Warriors have a combined DWS of 29.9. So, the team that is mainly known for jump shooting and offense has some serious defensive skills. On average, the Golden State Warriors score 10.1 more points then they allow, compared to Cleveland's' 4.4. These two teams are both highly skilled offensive units, but the Warriors also ranked #1 in defensive rating. The Cavs, however, ranked 18th. Wow. As far as the stats go, it looks like Golden State might take it. But, there is more to basketball than what you can see on paper. 


2. Match-ups
There are two big questions for this one: Can the Warriors stop LeBron, and can the Cavaliers stop Curry? Well, the Cavs have Kyrie Irving, who would normally be guarding Curry. But with a looming injury, who will guard the Warriors backcourt? The Cavs have defensive guru Iman Shumpert, who can guard Klay Thompson, but would he be quick enough to stop Curry? I don't know. Mathew Dellavedova is going to be really pressured to step up in a defensive capacity as well.  On the flipside, Harrison Barnes might be tasked with guarding LeBron, and that is quite a task. LeBron can score in a number of ways, and the Cavs have too many weapons to constantly double LeBron.  Honestly, I think the X-factor in the series could be Shaun Livingston. I am a huge fan of tall point guards and the 6 foot 7 Livingston is exactly that. So, I don't think you can really say that one team is considerably better off in this category.


3. Coaching
Both coaches, David Blatt and Steve Kerr, are first year NBA coaches. Kerr was a highly successful NBA player. Blatt was a highly successful coach in many different countries. So, they both know how to win, but in different ways.  


4. Conclusion
This matchup is super close. Maybe, from a few angles, too close to call.  But, I am going to give it a shot anyway. The Golden State Warriors will win the series in 6 or 7 games.