Hello and welcome, dear reader. I am here today to talk about fantasy baseball. Or, more specifically, how to win at fantasy baseball. Or, MORE more specifically, how I won at fantasy baseball this year. Now, everyone has a different strategy when drafting, or what type of players to target, and how many players at each position to keep, so I'm going to stay away from all that jazz. What I want to focus on is some of the other stuff that goes on in the winner's circle, some of the behind-the-scenes ideas you can put to use in your fantasy life. Now that all this introductory bunk is over, let us begin.
1. Remember Kenny Rogers
When making day to day moves in fantasy sports, specifically baseball (since it's a long season), the key is to remember Kenny Rogers. If you're from the group that's asking why you should be thinking of a country music legend when playing fantasy baseball, sit tight. If you are of the other group that's asking why you should be thinking of a former Texas Rangers starting pitcher (baseball diehards, I solute you) who retired in '08, also sit tight. I have an answer that will make all of you happy. Now, let's take a look at one of my rosters for a second. First guy on there, starting catcher, Yadier Molina. Molina was the 157th pick of that draft (I drafted from the 12th and final slot), my 14th player. In the months of May and June, Molina batted .212 and .235, respectively. His ownership rate plummeted. There I was, sitting with a team that had been average to that point, and Molina was slumping big time from his hot start (in the season's first calendar month he batted .341). Was I temped to cut ties permanently? Yes. Did I? Well, I looked at the waivers, I looked at my roster, and I heard the first line of that legendary chorus in my head. "You've got to know when to hold 'em" (ah, you say, now it's coming into focus). The Gambler can teach us many lessons, and this is the first one: don't be too quick on the trigger when it comes to cutting a player. If something tells you that a slump will end (stats, past patterns, gut feelings, whatever), don't just put that out of your mind. Molina ended up finishing the season with a batting average over .300 and a ranking of #4 on ESPN's Positional Rank. On the other side of that, let's look at a player who is no longer on my roster: the 85th pick, Ben Revere (which, going back, was a terribly stupid pick). Revere, well, let's just say he was rather poor this season. He failed to finish with a batting average over .220, and might not even make his own team's postseason roster. Revere was playing badly, and I was hopeful that a guy I took so early would turn it around, but it got to the point where I tried to trade him for something ("know when to walk away"). Nobody would give me the time of day, so I cut him ("and know when to run"). That worked out for me (it very well could have gone another way, but nobody knows that for sure), just knowing "when to fold 'em". Alright, former-pitcher-Kenny-Rogers crowd, you've been patient. It's time for your answer. If you know about Kenny Rogers (I had to look it up), you know he was decidedly "meh" for about the first decade of his career (he had one All-Star appearance, and never won 20 games). Then, at about the 11 or 12 season mark, it started to get worse. His career path was taking a predictable turn when, all of a sudden at age 39, he started throwing like he had in his younger days. He was dealing as many, if not more, innings as he was in the mid 90s, and actually was an All-Star in 2005. He had a decent season in 2006, and then boom. His 2007 campaign, in which he was over forty years old, was the stuff of legend. He was an All-Star, 5th in Cy Young voting, and 26th in the MVP race (baseball-reference.com) that year, seemingly without warning. So, when you are drafting or trading, always remember Kenny Rogers and how he tapped into the fountain of youth. For example, I drafted 37 year old Adrian Beltre 61st overall. Some people were iffy about relying on such a veteran player, but it's a risk I was willing to take. Beltre improved his home runs, RBIs, batting average, WAR, and walk totals from 2015 to this past year. I was able to luck out and catch a turn back the clock season from Beltre because I didn't strike him from my board because of age concerns. If there were injury concerns, then maybe, but straight up age is (in my opinion) not a great reason to put someone on the no-draft or emergency-draft list (sliding him down a little is fine, that'll happen). So, however you do it, make sure you remember Kenny Rogers.
2. Overreaction=Reaction
Hey, everyone overreacts sometimes. Maybe a player you took early on is really having a rough week, maybe he's not quite as healthy as you would have liked, and you have just had enough. You just don't feel like stashing him for brighter days anymore, and he finds himself on waivers or the trade block. For everyone else in the league, that's a golden opportunity for a possible steal in the cheapest way possible. However, often times a guy who's in that boat ends up not being that highly sought after once he hits the open market. That's often because many of your league mates would have done the exact same thing had the player been on their roster. That's how I added Corey Kluber and Yu Darvish in one of my leagues (also how I ended up with C.J. Anderson in fantasy football last year). When someone overreacts a little (it's bound to happen), try to capitalize. Guys who are bigger names, or higher draft picks, are usually worth stashing unless something really bad happens (like a big injury or benching). Don't follow the crowd and stay away from a situation like that. Remember, regardless of a slump or minor/moderate injury or stuff like that, somebody drafted that player high for a reason. When an owner overreacts, it almost always works in your favor to react.
3. Stash and Grab
Time to be honest. Who do you wish you could roster because you're such a big fan (or have a great feeling about), but just don't feel like you should? Everybody has players like that. For me, it's Jonathan Villar. I am a huge Villar fan, but I didn't know if drafting him over certain others was such a good idea. However, what's great about fantasy baseball (especially larger roster size leagues) is nabbing a guy you have a feeling about isn't going to hurt you at all. I owned Villar in every league I won this year, and he was a vital part of each of my rosters. However, I would not have owned him at all had I not decided to follow my gut and give him a spot on my bench. On average, Villar was taken with the 222nd pick in espn.com drafts. However, Villar ended up 5th overall (!!!!) in ESPN's Player Rater (only Mookie Betts, Jose Altuve, Mike Trout, and Max Scherzer eclipsed Villar on that list). The moral of this story is, stash that guy you really want to stash. Sometimes he ends up in the top 8 in DK-style fantasy points for each of the three positions he's eligible in (like Villar), and sometimes he ends up a dud. Regardless, what damage does it do? Maybe you catch a look from a fellow owner, at the absolute most. So go ahead, do it. You know you want to.
I will not be wearing any fantasy loser tattoos this season. However, if you didn't fare as well, get your fantasy loser tattoos on Twitter or Amazon from @Fantasylosertat!
If you have any comments, concerns, questions, wisecracks, ideas, theories, or you have anything at all to add, hit me up in the comment box or on Twitter @hoover__26! Thanks and fantasy on!
The rants and opinions of a fanatic of all sports! Comment away and follow me on Twitter @hoover__26, I love to debate!
Saturday, October 8, 2016
Wednesday, September 28, 2016
Disaster on Flatbush Ave? Why The Brooklyn Nets Aren't As Bad As They Look
Want to hear a joke? The Brooklyn Nets. Yes, yes, we've heard it all before. From the outside looking in, this roster looks like a dumpster fire rolling down a cliff into a radioactive volcano. I mean, who is even going to start for them? They paid Jeremy Lin 38 million dollars just so they could say they drew a free agent, and couldn't even keep the likes of Allen Crabbe and Tyler Johnson on the roster for more than fifteen minutes. They ended up with a team of NBA misfits, outcasts, rookies, and Brook Lopez. Now, how on earth could they be better than they look? Well, here goes nothing...
Rebounding-
This team ranked 23rd last year in rebounding, so that wasn't a bright spot. And, they lost their best rebounder Thaddeus Young to the new-look Pacers. But, I have hope. They still have Brook Lopez, who can be a dominant center in the NBA when he isn't surrounded by total scrubs, but that's it when it comes to big name rebounders. However, consider this: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and the newly signed Trevor Booker both averaged at least 12 rebounds per 100 possessions (Booker averaged over 14, both more than Brook Lopez), and Hollis-Jefferson will only be in his second season in the league next year (basketball-reference.com). Also, Chris McCullough (the team's youngest player last year) averaged nearly 10 boards per 100 possessions to go along with shooting 38% from long range. With Hollis-Jefferson finally healthy, the possible emergence of the still young Booker in the lineup, and the additions of Luis Scola (whose career rebounding percentage is higher than Marc Gasol's and on par with that of Pau Gasol), Anthony Bennett, and Egidijus Mockevicious (who led the NCAA in rebounding his senior year at Evansville), the Nets' rebounding situation could be sneakily on the rise. Concerning Egidijus, you would be perfectly correct in pointing out how poor his competition was in college. However, try comparing him to first round pick of the Raptors, Pascal Siakam (for the record, I love Siakam as a prospect, just using him as an example). Egidijus averaged 15.7 points and 13.9 rebounds per game in his senior year on a .637 FG%. In Siakam's sophomore year with New Mexico State, he averaged 20.2 points and 11.6 rebounds on a .538 FG%. According to the SOS rating (a strength of schedule stat used by sports-reference.com where 0 is NCAA normal), Egidijus' schedule was a strength of -0.39. In contrast, Siakam's SOS rating his sophomore year was -3.54 (to add a third factor, Skal Labissiere's SOS rating was 8.84). So, the undrafted Mockevicious might just give the Nets some good minutes off the boards. Mix in what they already have, and I think they may have made up for their losses on this front.
Field Goal Percentage-
Little known fact here, the Nets were in the top half of the league in field goal percentage last season. They got rid of three of their top four shot takers from last year (Young, Jarrett Jack, and Joe Johnson), and that made a big ripple in their balance of power on the offensive end. However, when you average the field goal percentage of the three, it comes out to a number under 44%. If they can get newer players to step up and take those shots, like Sean Kilpatrick (46.2%), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (45.7%), or Trevor Booker (49%), they might be in even better shape. If you toss in their change in point guard from Jarrett Jack (39.1%) to Jeremy Lin (41.2%), the numbers get a little better. Honestly, with what this team has already, coupled with what they changed, they could be a top half team in field goal percentage again this season, if not sneaking into the top 12 or 10. From long range, this team might be sneaky good as well. Jeremy Lin has been a way better shooter when he gets big minutes, and guys like Bojan Bogdanovic and Randy Foye being on the roster will only help your jump shot as a team.
Guard Play-
Last year, Brooklyn played three point guards for consistent minutes at one point or another (injuries didn't help). Jarrett Jack, Shane Larkin, and Donald Sloan manned the point for the team's 21 win season, and it wasn't the prettiest thing in the world. However, not one of those three is on the roster this season. Now, they have a new committee to oversee the 1 spot, consisting of rookies Isaiah Whitehead, Caris LeVert, and Yogi Ferrell, along with signees Jeremy Lin and Greivis Vasquez. Those three rookies may be the finest group of rookie point guards in the league, from Whitehead the athletic volume scorer to LeVert the sometimes injured star (reminds me of a kid who came out of Memphis a few years back, what was his name again?), and Ferrell who has more experience than most NBA point guards without ever stepping on the floor. Lin is the projected starter (and historically better at stuffing the stat sheet when he starts as opposed to a bench role), and nobody knows who is going to be on the main roster from that rookie trio (or how many minutes Vasquez sees, if any), but I think it's safe to say that the point guard spot has improved from generally depressing to slightly optimistic.
Coaching-
Brooklyn was coached by Lionel Hollins and Tony Brown last season, and that didn't work out too well. Brown won more games than Hollins, but only finished with a record of 11-34. Now, they have a newly inked head coach named Kenny Atkinson who is not only a Long Island native, but a product of the Mike Budenholzer system. Now, that might just work for this team. Kenny has also worked as a player development director for many years, another big selling point if a good part of your roster hasn't even had their official NBA pictures taken yet. Guys like Egidijus, LeVert, and Beau Beech (not to mention Anthony Bennett, everybody knows he needs some development BAD), who will need refining early in their careers, might be better off playing for a coach that knows player development like the back of his hand. Especially when that coach will have to be playing guys like that on a consistent basis. A defensive mind doesn't hurt either, as Kenny will be stepping in a role where he has to put guys like Vasquez and Randy Foye on the court to play both ends.
Final Thoughts-
Hey, I did my best. If we're being honest, this team is not good at all. We all know that. But, in all fairness to Brooklyn, they have a decent ceiling. It is my opinion that this team could win 30-35ish games, if they bite the bullet and play their young guns as opposed to playing it ridiculously safe and sending guys like Chase Budinger and Joe Harris out for 20 minutes a game. Regardless, this dumpster fire may have a leg to stand on after all. Look out for some of these younger players Brooklyn has gotten their hands on lately as well, a few of them could be superstars in the making. So, that's what I think. But I want to hear what YOU think!!! Hit me up on my off-the-chain Twitter account @hoover__26, or in the comments button directly below the words you are currently reading!
Thanks for coming!
Rebounding-
This team ranked 23rd last year in rebounding, so that wasn't a bright spot. And, they lost their best rebounder Thaddeus Young to the new-look Pacers. But, I have hope. They still have Brook Lopez, who can be a dominant center in the NBA when he isn't surrounded by total scrubs, but that's it when it comes to big name rebounders. However, consider this: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and the newly signed Trevor Booker both averaged at least 12 rebounds per 100 possessions (Booker averaged over 14, both more than Brook Lopez), and Hollis-Jefferson will only be in his second season in the league next year (basketball-reference.com). Also, Chris McCullough (the team's youngest player last year) averaged nearly 10 boards per 100 possessions to go along with shooting 38% from long range. With Hollis-Jefferson finally healthy, the possible emergence of the still young Booker in the lineup, and the additions of Luis Scola (whose career rebounding percentage is higher than Marc Gasol's and on par with that of Pau Gasol), Anthony Bennett, and Egidijus Mockevicious (who led the NCAA in rebounding his senior year at Evansville), the Nets' rebounding situation could be sneakily on the rise. Concerning Egidijus, you would be perfectly correct in pointing out how poor his competition was in college. However, try comparing him to first round pick of the Raptors, Pascal Siakam (for the record, I love Siakam as a prospect, just using him as an example). Egidijus averaged 15.7 points and 13.9 rebounds per game in his senior year on a .637 FG%. In Siakam's sophomore year with New Mexico State, he averaged 20.2 points and 11.6 rebounds on a .538 FG%. According to the SOS rating (a strength of schedule stat used by sports-reference.com where 0 is NCAA normal), Egidijus' schedule was a strength of -0.39. In contrast, Siakam's SOS rating his sophomore year was -3.54 (to add a third factor, Skal Labissiere's SOS rating was 8.84). So, the undrafted Mockevicious might just give the Nets some good minutes off the boards. Mix in what they already have, and I think they may have made up for their losses on this front.
Field Goal Percentage-
Little known fact here, the Nets were in the top half of the league in field goal percentage last season. They got rid of three of their top four shot takers from last year (Young, Jarrett Jack, and Joe Johnson), and that made a big ripple in their balance of power on the offensive end. However, when you average the field goal percentage of the three, it comes out to a number under 44%. If they can get newer players to step up and take those shots, like Sean Kilpatrick (46.2%), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (45.7%), or Trevor Booker (49%), they might be in even better shape. If you toss in their change in point guard from Jarrett Jack (39.1%) to Jeremy Lin (41.2%), the numbers get a little better. Honestly, with what this team has already, coupled with what they changed, they could be a top half team in field goal percentage again this season, if not sneaking into the top 12 or 10. From long range, this team might be sneaky good as well. Jeremy Lin has been a way better shooter when he gets big minutes, and guys like Bojan Bogdanovic and Randy Foye being on the roster will only help your jump shot as a team.
Guard Play-
Last year, Brooklyn played three point guards for consistent minutes at one point or another (injuries didn't help). Jarrett Jack, Shane Larkin, and Donald Sloan manned the point for the team's 21 win season, and it wasn't the prettiest thing in the world. However, not one of those three is on the roster this season. Now, they have a new committee to oversee the 1 spot, consisting of rookies Isaiah Whitehead, Caris LeVert, and Yogi Ferrell, along with signees Jeremy Lin and Greivis Vasquez. Those three rookies may be the finest group of rookie point guards in the league, from Whitehead the athletic volume scorer to LeVert the sometimes injured star (reminds me of a kid who came out of Memphis a few years back, what was his name again?), and Ferrell who has more experience than most NBA point guards without ever stepping on the floor. Lin is the projected starter (and historically better at stuffing the stat sheet when he starts as opposed to a bench role), and nobody knows who is going to be on the main roster from that rookie trio (or how many minutes Vasquez sees, if any), but I think it's safe to say that the point guard spot has improved from generally depressing to slightly optimistic.
Coaching-
Brooklyn was coached by Lionel Hollins and Tony Brown last season, and that didn't work out too well. Brown won more games than Hollins, but only finished with a record of 11-34. Now, they have a newly inked head coach named Kenny Atkinson who is not only a Long Island native, but a product of the Mike Budenholzer system. Now, that might just work for this team. Kenny has also worked as a player development director for many years, another big selling point if a good part of your roster hasn't even had their official NBA pictures taken yet. Guys like Egidijus, LeVert, and Beau Beech (not to mention Anthony Bennett, everybody knows he needs some development BAD), who will need refining early in their careers, might be better off playing for a coach that knows player development like the back of his hand. Especially when that coach will have to be playing guys like that on a consistent basis. A defensive mind doesn't hurt either, as Kenny will be stepping in a role where he has to put guys like Vasquez and Randy Foye on the court to play both ends.
Final Thoughts-
Hey, I did my best. If we're being honest, this team is not good at all. We all know that. But, in all fairness to Brooklyn, they have a decent ceiling. It is my opinion that this team could win 30-35ish games, if they bite the bullet and play their young guns as opposed to playing it ridiculously safe and sending guys like Chase Budinger and Joe Harris out for 20 minutes a game. Regardless, this dumpster fire may have a leg to stand on after all. Look out for some of these younger players Brooklyn has gotten their hands on lately as well, a few of them could be superstars in the making. So, that's what I think. But I want to hear what YOU think!!! Hit me up on my off-the-chain Twitter account @hoover__26, or in the comments button directly below the words you are currently reading!
Thanks for coming!
Thursday, September 8, 2016
Hoover's NFL Week One Predictions
Hello #HooverSportsTalk readers! Quickly today, on the day of the NFL opener, I wanted to share my final Week 1 predictions. Here they are, in a handy photo:
Wish me luck! I would love to hear your comments, and your own predictions, in the comment box below or on Twitter @hoover__26. Also, go ahead and ask me whatever questions you want about sports, fantasy football, more predictions (spoiler alert: Tajae Sharpe OROY and Nick Chubb Heisman), or whatever! Thanks!
Friday, August 12, 2016
Zhou Qi- The Houston Rockets' Chinese Mystery Man
Before the NBA Draft, I was doing my yearly prospect research and film study when I tripped across a name I hadn't heard before. I usually have a pretty good understanding of the games of guys projected down into the late first and early second (or at least have some idea of who the heck they are), so I was eager to learn more about this Chinese big man named Zhou Qi. As soon as I saw him, I knew I was intrigued. Normally, when I think of a Chinese player in the NBA, I think of someone like Yao Ming or Yi Jianlian. Tall, powerful shot blockers and rebounders, without a huge amount of perimeter skill (you may think of Jeremy Lin, but Qi is 7'2", so that image didn't really pop into my head). However, this super young big man is of a breed that is only in it's infancy in the NBA, the long and thin jump shooter. With the drafting of Kristaps Porzingis, who could also be classified as tall, skinny and an elite shooter, we can clearly see that there is a place for players like this in the league. However, just looking at Zhou Qi certainly wasn't close to enough to evaluate his game. So, I have made a post-draft scouting report for all of you who are still unsure of the Houston Rockets' 43rd overall pick.
OFFENSIVE SKILL SET
Qi is a very talented player for his age (we will touch upon his age later) on the offensive side of the ball. I have rarely seen players as tall as Qi as fluid and smooth with the ball as he is (besides perhaps top college prospect Deng Gak, and Milwaukee Bucks' draft pick Thon Maker, who we will touch upon again later). While he may sometimes seem lost when he is moving without the ball (I attribute this in part to a lack of tactical coaching), once he does get himself open and make the catch, he looks like a guard. He has strong ball handling, and makes some of the smoothest moves attacking the basket off the dribble that I have ever seen a 7'2" player make. He has a nice set of moves in the post, and while he hasn't quite mastered them yet, the potential is obvious. He is a really ready player on the offensive end, if he can hold his position at only about 215lbs.
DEFENSIVE SKILL SET
This is where it gets a little more murky for Qi. You may look at his numbers and see that he has led the Chinese Basketball Association in blocked shots for two years running and draw the conclusion that he's a fine low post defender. However, in reality, Qi relied heavily on a wingspan that is nearly 7'8" to block a majority of his shots, without using very many low post positioning skills required to block NBA shots. When forced to make a decision in the post, he didn't always react quick enough to cover a driving player or get in the right position to block a shot. I think that's the kind of thing that Houston can remedy by "locking him in a room with Hakeem Olajuwon". He has all the length he needs to be a shot blocker in the NBA, he just needs to add muscle and muscle memory. If he can be taught to make better and faster choices and movements on the interior, he could be a dominant defender. When, say, the shot clock is winding down and the ball handler can only shoot, Qi times his jumps well and does a very good job contesting. It's only when a player is threatening to do multiple things that Qi has a hard time finding himself in the right place defensively. On the ball defense on the perimeter is never really a strong suit for someone of Qi's size and position, but he shows flashes of guard-like man defense on the outside. This is detailed in an excellent piece you can find here: https://onebasketblog.wordpress.com/2016/06/21/zhou-qi-scouting-report/. Overall, I think if he adds muscle and gets a little more versed in the subtleties of playing defense, he could be a more than passable defender in the NBA. Because, as he is now, he is nearly useless in the paint against someone like Boogie Cousins or Andre Drummond. Rebounding is another issue, as he relies on his size and reach to snatch rebounds over less talented players. While that's surely going to be a learning curve, I think it's something he can learn to improve at. It's the kind of thing where he needs to be told how to do it right, and focus on it until he fully grasps it (it's difficult to break a habit at 19 or 20 years old, which is why I knocked Dragan Bender down to 10 on my pre-draft board).
BODY EVALUATION
Two words: get bigger. Normally I go against the grain when it comes to gaining weight and muscle, as I was against Porzingis picking up too much and losing some of what got him to the NBA in the first place. However, Qi is going to be in a position where he will be matched up against some of the NBA's biggest and best, and he needs to be bulkier if he wants any chance at success. His height and length obviously are tremendous, and he doesn't seem to have much of an injury history, so he has that going for him. But, honestly, all he needs on this front is to just get bigger. Once he does that, he should be good as far as matching up against some of the stronger players in the NBA.
CONTROVERSY
Ah, here we go. You know I love a little controversy (I mean, it feels so empty without it), so I have to talk about the questions swirling around Zhou Qi's age. Supposedly, Qi is in fact closer to 22, which was suggested because of normal rules about Chinese players not declaring for the draft until that age. I don't know if I believe that, as the examples that are being used were quite a a few years ago. CBA and NBA alumni Bobby Brown's translator has also alleged that Qi is possibly even closer to 25, which is not corroborated and frankly even harder to believe. However, even if Qi IS in fact 22, there is even more evidence on 10th overall pick Thon Maker being as old as 23. Even if both are in their twenties, there is more evidence proving Maker than Qi, and Maker still was taken in the lottery (if you haven't already, check this out on Maker- http://bit.ly/29hQXEY) So, this really doesn't bother me, but I would have been missing an opportunity to talk about conspiracy theories if I didn't mention it.
CONCLUSION
After watching Qi intently during the Olympics so far, I am able to come up with the following conclusion. Qi is a very fluid and NBA ready offensive player who needs to add muscle mass and work on a better feel for the game defensively and when positioning for rebounds. He has a great amount of potential, but he needs work on understanding more complicated principles of being an NBA center. Houston is a great place for him with the history of Chinese players having success, and the different training available for an interior player. Qi is a great value in the mid second round, and might just be the next big thing you've never heard of.
OFFENSIVE SKILL SET
Qi is a very talented player for his age (we will touch upon his age later) on the offensive side of the ball. I have rarely seen players as tall as Qi as fluid and smooth with the ball as he is (besides perhaps top college prospect Deng Gak, and Milwaukee Bucks' draft pick Thon Maker, who we will touch upon again later). While he may sometimes seem lost when he is moving without the ball (I attribute this in part to a lack of tactical coaching), once he does get himself open and make the catch, he looks like a guard. He has strong ball handling, and makes some of the smoothest moves attacking the basket off the dribble that I have ever seen a 7'2" player make. He has a nice set of moves in the post, and while he hasn't quite mastered them yet, the potential is obvious. He is a really ready player on the offensive end, if he can hold his position at only about 215lbs.
DEFENSIVE SKILL SET
This is where it gets a little more murky for Qi. You may look at his numbers and see that he has led the Chinese Basketball Association in blocked shots for two years running and draw the conclusion that he's a fine low post defender. However, in reality, Qi relied heavily on a wingspan that is nearly 7'8" to block a majority of his shots, without using very many low post positioning skills required to block NBA shots. When forced to make a decision in the post, he didn't always react quick enough to cover a driving player or get in the right position to block a shot. I think that's the kind of thing that Houston can remedy by "locking him in a room with Hakeem Olajuwon". He has all the length he needs to be a shot blocker in the NBA, he just needs to add muscle and muscle memory. If he can be taught to make better and faster choices and movements on the interior, he could be a dominant defender. When, say, the shot clock is winding down and the ball handler can only shoot, Qi times his jumps well and does a very good job contesting. It's only when a player is threatening to do multiple things that Qi has a hard time finding himself in the right place defensively. On the ball defense on the perimeter is never really a strong suit for someone of Qi's size and position, but he shows flashes of guard-like man defense on the outside. This is detailed in an excellent piece you can find here: https://onebasketblog.wordpress.com/2016/06/21/zhou-qi-scouting-report/. Overall, I think if he adds muscle and gets a little more versed in the subtleties of playing defense, he could be a more than passable defender in the NBA. Because, as he is now, he is nearly useless in the paint against someone like Boogie Cousins or Andre Drummond. Rebounding is another issue, as he relies on his size and reach to snatch rebounds over less talented players. While that's surely going to be a learning curve, I think it's something he can learn to improve at. It's the kind of thing where he needs to be told how to do it right, and focus on it until he fully grasps it (it's difficult to break a habit at 19 or 20 years old, which is why I knocked Dragan Bender down to 10 on my pre-draft board).
BODY EVALUATION
Two words: get bigger. Normally I go against the grain when it comes to gaining weight and muscle, as I was against Porzingis picking up too much and losing some of what got him to the NBA in the first place. However, Qi is going to be in a position where he will be matched up against some of the NBA's biggest and best, and he needs to be bulkier if he wants any chance at success. His height and length obviously are tremendous, and he doesn't seem to have much of an injury history, so he has that going for him. But, honestly, all he needs on this front is to just get bigger. Once he does that, he should be good as far as matching up against some of the stronger players in the NBA.
CONTROVERSY
Ah, here we go. You know I love a little controversy (I mean, it feels so empty without it), so I have to talk about the questions swirling around Zhou Qi's age. Supposedly, Qi is in fact closer to 22, which was suggested because of normal rules about Chinese players not declaring for the draft until that age. I don't know if I believe that, as the examples that are being used were quite a a few years ago. CBA and NBA alumni Bobby Brown's translator has also alleged that Qi is possibly even closer to 25, which is not corroborated and frankly even harder to believe. However, even if Qi IS in fact 22, there is even more evidence on 10th overall pick Thon Maker being as old as 23. Even if both are in their twenties, there is more evidence proving Maker than Qi, and Maker still was taken in the lottery (if you haven't already, check this out on Maker- http://bit.ly/29hQXEY) So, this really doesn't bother me, but I would have been missing an opportunity to talk about conspiracy theories if I didn't mention it.
CONCLUSION
After watching Qi intently during the Olympics so far, I am able to come up with the following conclusion. Qi is a very fluid and NBA ready offensive player who needs to add muscle mass and work on a better feel for the game defensively and when positioning for rebounds. He has a great amount of potential, but he needs work on understanding more complicated principles of being an NBA center. Houston is a great place for him with the history of Chinese players having success, and the different training available for an interior player. Qi is a great value in the mid second round, and might just be the next big thing you've never heard of.
Thursday, August 4, 2016
Cleveland Browns NFL Record Prediction 2016
Recently I got into a debate with some NFL writers and podcasters about the Cleveland Browns' record for next season. So, I decided to post a prediction. There won't be too much glamour in this post, I'm mostly just announcing my thoughts on how many wins Cleveland will have next year.
Week 1- Win vs. Eagles
Week 2- Loss vs. Ravens
Week 3- Loss vs. Dolphins
Week 4- Win vs. Redskins
Week 5- Loss vs. Patriots
Week 6- Loss vs. Titans
Week 7- Win vs. Bengals
Week 8- Win vs. Jets
Week 9- Win vs. Cowboys
Week 10- Win vs. Ravens
Week 11- Loss vs. Steelers
Week 12- Loss vs. Giants
Week 13- BYE
Week 14- Loss vs. Bengals
Week 15- Win vs. Bills
Week 16- Loss vs. Chargers
Week 17- Win vs. Steelers
So, 8-8. I know many people don't think they can win more than 4 (the Vegas over/under is 4.5), even @DownWithDamon (Browns fan extraordinaire) puts them at 6 wins. But, I love to be bold (if you have read anything of mine, especially my last post, you knew that), and I think RG3 has Pro-Bowl potential in Cleveland. Duke Johnson is a very versatile running back (and a great PPR fantasy option), and the return of Josh Gordon in week five coupled with a great rookie in Corey Coleman and a proven tight end in Gary Barnidge, that's a scary offense. This Browns team can be very solid in my opinion, but I want to hear yours as well! Tweet me @hoover__26, and comment below!
Week 1- Win vs. Eagles
Week 2- Loss vs. Ravens
Week 3- Loss vs. Dolphins
Week 4- Win vs. Redskins
Week 5- Loss vs. Patriots
Week 6- Loss vs. Titans
Week 7- Win vs. Bengals
Week 8- Win vs. Jets
Week 9- Win vs. Cowboys
Week 10- Win vs. Ravens
Week 11- Loss vs. Steelers
Week 12- Loss vs. Giants
Week 13- BYE
Week 14- Loss vs. Bengals
Week 15- Win vs. Bills
Week 16- Loss vs. Chargers
Week 17- Win vs. Steelers
So, 8-8. I know many people don't think they can win more than 4 (the Vegas over/under is 4.5), even @DownWithDamon (Browns fan extraordinaire) puts them at 6 wins. But, I love to be bold (if you have read anything of mine, especially my last post, you knew that), and I think RG3 has Pro-Bowl potential in Cleveland. Duke Johnson is a very versatile running back (and a great PPR fantasy option), and the return of Josh Gordon in week five coupled with a great rookie in Corey Coleman and a proven tight end in Gary Barnidge, that's a scary offense. This Browns team can be very solid in my opinion, but I want to hear yours as well! Tweet me @hoover__26, and comment below!
Friday, July 29, 2016
What Could Have Been- The Legend of Arvydas Sabonis
Let's begin this odyssey in 1981. Sabonis was 17, and playing in the European Championship for Cadets. His Soviet Union team went undefeated, winning all seven games by a combined margin of 241 points. Young Sabonis averaged 17 points per game, but unfortunately we have no records of rebounds, assists or blocks until years later. Plus, unless you happened to have been watching in person in 1981, we really have very little good video of a young, healthy Sabonis. We have some grainy and undated film of Sabonis looking like a young, athletic center with dark Larry Bird hair shooting one of four shots- a three off the catch, a turnaround midrange jumper, a practically un-blockable sky hook, or a monster dunk. We can gather a few things from this film, one being he wasn't always the slow and pudgy guy that hobbled around the court in a Portland uniform in the late nineties. He was once a super athlete, with a pair of quick feet to go along with his incredible size and bodybuilder strength.
Let's move forward to our next spot on the timeline (big thanks to chile2011.fiba.com for this). It's now the 1983 World Championship for Junior Men, and an 18.5 year old Sabonis is the Soviet Union's undoubted star. He leads the team in scoring with 18.5 points per game, and averages 23.5 points per game against the eventual champion United States (the Soviets finished second against a USA team that featured Kenny Walker and Larry Krystkowiak). Well okay, you say, but that's for Junior Men. What could he do against real men? Let's take a look at the 1983 European Championship for Men. Sabonis again led his team in scoring with 17.7 per game, despite being the youngest player on the Soviet Union's roster by five to ten years. Also keep in mind that Sabonis' field goal percentage hasn't dipped below 60% even once. In Sabonis' final game of the tournament, he scored 28 points on 10/12 shooting from the field. He was completely dominant in European play, despite being so young playing against older, more experienced veterans.
Sabonis and his Soviet team continued to be a force to be reckoned with, bowling through the 1984 European Olympic Qualifying Tournament and 1985 European Championship for men, winning both while scoring an average of 15.3 and 20.1 points per game, respectively. Now, 1985 is an extremely interesting year in the story of Arvydas. The Atlanta Hawks were considered one of the teams at the forefront of the international athlete boom, and decided to take a crazy risk and reach blindly behind the iron curtain attempting to snag Sabonis. According to Stan Kasten (courtesy of sports.vice.com), "Sabonis was widely regarded as the greatest basketball player in the world at that time." Okay, hold up. After reading and processing the implications of this (considering this is 1985 and guys like MJ, Kareem, Magic, Bird, Hakeem, Dr. J, Isiah Thomas, and Moses Malone were all active in the NBA), you may question just how honest was Los Angeles Dodgers CEO (and former Hawks GM) Stan Kasten being when he said "greatest...in the world". If you say maybe he was just talking about centers, I will direct you towards Kareem, Hakeem, Moses Malone, and Robert Parish, who were all technically "in the world" at the time. Okay, you say, maybe he was just talking about that draft class. If that were true, his statement would still include guys like Patrick Ewing, Karl Malone and Chris Mullin. So clearly, regardless of whatever stipulations are put on Kasten's statement, it's still an obvious compliment from someone who really knows sports and a good young athlete. Now, this is Sabonis' first chance to come to America and play in the NBA. Unfortunatly, he wasn't quite 21 yet (in those days the old rule about having to be of the most recent college graduating class or older was still hanging on), and since he was unlucky enough to share his draft year with the arrival of the legendary (expletive) David Stern, his choice was voided. Atlanta honestly didn't know Sabonis wasn't 21 yet, and it deferred the drafting of Sabonis another year. Imagine if Sabonis had been allowed to come to Atlanta in 1985, the kind of team they would have had. A 26 year old Dominique Wilkins (who was already scoring 30 points per game at the time), a rookie Spud Webb, a 24 year old Doc Rivers, a 23 year old Kevin Willis, and Sabonis, all maturing together. The Hawks had won 50 games in 1985, despite their best shooter (Randy Wittman) making only five threes on the year. Wilkins was shooting .186 from long range, and not one player on that team averaged at least one three point attempt per game. If Sabonis comes over at almost 21, he's instantly the team's best shooter. Any team that can win 50 games without much experience or shooting ability (and 57 the next year with only one player shooting over 30% from long range) would have been instant title contenders if they added a skilled and experienced (but still young) Arvydas Sabonis. But, they didn't, so let's not harp on that for too much longer.
Sabonis averaged 15.3 points in the 1986 World Championship for Men, and topped that average in the final against the United States by scoring 16 in a duel with David Robinson (the Soviets actually lost that one, which wasn't a familiar feeling for Sabonis). This was the last event Sabonis played at near 100% (he had been hurt before, but nothing career threatening). While running up the stairs to answer the phone (thank you nytimes.com for this little detail), he ruptured his Achilles tendon. The return to "routine activities" usually takes 4-6 months (clearly, however, being Arvydas Sabonis was far from routine". He rehabbed the injury in Portland, who had drafted him in the first round in 1986 and crossed their fingers that they could wrestle him away from the Soviet Union, but he was rushed back into action after only 2-3 months. And not just any action. He was rushed back into the Seoul Olympics in 1988. He still managed to average 13.3 points, 11.1 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game (this is the first event in which we have more detailed stats), and led his team to a Gold (knocking out the USA and Yugoslavia in the process). While he was third on the team in scoring, he was probably the most important player on the team, as his 13/11/2 line was (to me, anyway) more powerful than an 18/2/2 line (held by Raimondas Marciulionis, the team's leading scorer). He wasn't just the leader of his team, he was also (apparently) the life of the party. The ever fun Sabonis supposedly got into a drinking contest somewhere in the Olympic Village, and was, (cough, cough) "unavailable" for the gold medal ceremony (his request after his first two a day practice with Portland many years later consisted of one word: beer).
Sabonis averaged 16.4 points in the 1989 European Championship for Men (again, we go back to having no other stats), but he was a very limited version of his early eighties dominant self that shattered backboards like Shaq (if you don't believe me, look it up). The USSR ground him (and his legs) to a pulp, and it left him a shadow of the all-powerful giant he once was. Just because he was a shadow, however, didn't mean he couldn't still go out and play like one of the best. He averaged 23.3 points, 13.5 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1 steal, and 3.6 blocks per game for Forum Valladolid of the Liga ACB in Spain in 1989-90, while shooting over 40% from three point range. Keep in mind, Sabonis has the foot speed of Frankenstein by now with all of his overuse leg injuries (and unfortunately, cut his legendary mullet). By the time the 1992 Olympics rolled around, the Soviet Union had fallen and Sabonis was set to be the star player for the Lithuanian National Team. He was once again on the top of his team's scoring list, with a stud-like average of 23.9/12.5/1.8. Somehow, despite being ravaged by injuries, Sabonis was still able to be a dominant international force. He led the Lithuanians to a bronze finish in both the 1992 and 1996 Olympics, with perhaps his greatest international performance ever in the 1995 European Championship for Men, where he averaged 22.3 points, 13.3 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game. Also, his Liga ACB stardom has been running concurrently with these tournaments (he finished his 6 year career there with averages over 20 points, 12 rebounds and 2 assists per game).
Let's go right to the 1995-96 NBA season, the one that finally saw the "debut" of "rookie" Arvydas Sabonis (a laughable moniker for a guy as weathered as him). Sabonis did exactly what was expected of him as a 30 year old rookie. Play around 24 minutes off the bench, average about 15/8/2, and be a veteran presence (and oh, I almost forgot, shoot 37.5% from long range at 7'3.5"). He actually averaged over 23 points per game in the 95-96 playoffs for Portland. Sabonis was inexplicably exciting to watch for someone who ran like he was trying to keep his legs from imploding (mostly because he was). His passes were so flashy, always going around his head, behind his back, and NEVER looking at who he was passing to. He could still throw down some dunks as well, with a legendary reverse jam that looked like a flashback to that grainy, Russian narrated film from the eighties (except this was grainy, Bill Walton narrated film from the nineties). His best season in the NBA came in 1997-98, where he finished with a line of 16/10/3 and made 73 starts for Portland. He also finished his career with a Win Shares per 48 minutes of .200, which is equal to that of Wilt Chamberlain (basketball-reference.com).
Arvydas Sabonis continued to suit up for various teams (including one he owned) after his NBA retirement in 2003. He actually had some pretty good seasons. But, he eventually hung it up for good, leaving behind the ever rare "what could have been" Hall of Fame legacy. When you are a Hall of Famer, usually you "hit all of your lights" so to speak, and realized your full potential. Sabonis is in the Hall of Fame because he deserves it. He is a legend in the game of basketball. But, we will never really know just how high on the list of greatest big men in NBA history he would have gotten. I personally think he could have been one of the greatest of all time. But, this article is about him being the most skilled big ever. Brian Mazique (@UniqueMazique) said "[Sabonis] would've been an all-time great in the NBA had he arrived in his 20s," and "he was the greatest passing big man I ever saw." Now that I've made my case, let me know what you think. Tweet me @hoover__26 or drop your opinion in the comment box below. As for my final thoughts, if you've made it this far, congratulations. I hope you know more about Arvydas Sabonis than when you began reading this. If not, the public must be more informed than I thought. But if that was true, would he be so underappreciated (the player who the NBA, the government, and the people of America campaigned to acquire, and the Russian government dare not give up)? I certainly hope not.
Sunday, July 17, 2016
T.J. McConnell: The Next Generation of Great Point Guards?
Pure point guard. You hear the term so often in today's NBA, but what does it even mean? Is it a ball distributor who looks for the pass first, and all else later? If so, then you could say Ben Simmons is a "pure point guard" despite the fact that he's 6'10" and may not even play point guard in a real game. Is it an offensive facilitator, who does what is necessary for his team to score points? That may sound like the same thing, but the difference between the two is the distributor proactively looks to get his teammates good looks at the basket on every possession, while the facilitator allows his teammates to by default get good looks by being an active threat. If a "pure point guard" is an offensive facilitator, then you could call Stephen Curry one of the purest in the business, despite the fact that he often takes deep jumpers off the dribble. Is a pure point guard someone who CAN do it all, but chooses to work his teammates into the offense whenever he can? One example a lot of people have brought up is Chris Paul, and he more than likely falls closer to that last example. When I asked the public about this, I got responses like "always looks for the pass, selective shooting" (first example), "able to lead a team on both sides of the floor...able to distribute and shoot as well as defend." (second example), and "runs the floor, sets up teammates, takes care of the ball" (closer to the first example). The most common player comparisons were Chris Paul, John Wall, Rajon Rondo, John Stockton, Steve Nash, Mike Conley, Tony Parker, and Damian Lillard (listed in order of most mentioned). Why am I asking this question? Well, because there is a young man playing for Philadelphia that just may be the exact definition of "pure point guard". T.J. McConnell is one of the most willing and talented passers in the game, shot nearly 35% from long range in his rookie season, and was 10th in the league in steals per 48 minutes last season (espn.com). But, since I know the burden of proof is on me to provide adequate statistics and observations in order for you to join me as a McConnell believer, I will certainly not stop there.
Another trait of a real pure point guard is "someone who can make every pass with ease". If you need proof that McConnell can do that, watch the video I will end this article with. If having the "ability to pass from anywhere, selective 3pt shooting and arsenal of mid range moves to get off shots" is also a key part, then McConnell fits that bill as well. He shot nearly 52% from within 16 feet last season, and despite being a solid long range shooter, attempted less than a fifth of his shots from long range. For reference, Kemba Walker (a career 33.4% three point shooter) has attempted more than 30% of his shots from three in his career. McConnell also has stats that top some of those "pure point guards" that were mentioned the most. McConnell finished 6th in the NBA in assists per 48 minutes, ahead of guys like Tony Parker, Damian Lillard, and Mike Conley. He also finished in the top 15 in assist/turnover ratio for point guards while guys like John Wall fell to the 20s. (courtesy of espn.com). McConnell also finished in the top 10 in assist percentage and finished above the Devensive Player of the Year Kawhi Leonard in steal percentage (basketball-reference.com). Sounds to me like McConnell's numbers and style fit perfectly with the "passing and defense" mold of a pure point guard. And if guys like CP3 and John Wall can be All-Stars and elite players, why not T.J.? Let's just say, for argument's sake, that McConnell continues to improve and eventually (say his 3rd or 4th season) gets in a situation where he is playing 28-32 minutes per game consistently. That's a feasible start to McConnell's career path, and it also happens to match Kyle Lowry's early career almost exactly. You can make the argument that McConnell was three years older than Lowry when he came into the league, but if you compare ages, you have to make a note of the following. Lowry averaged 13.5 points, 6.7 assists and 5.4 rebounds per 36 minutes in his age 23 season, with many years of NBA experience already. In McConnell's rookie season (also his age 23 season), he averaged 11.1 points, 8.2 assists and 5.6 rebounds per 36 minutes (courtesy of basketball-reference.com). If Lowry went on to be a an All-Star, what is stopping T.J. McConnell from ascending to that height?
Earlier in the article, I promised that I would show you a video that proves just how good T.J. McConnell has already become. Not being one to disappoint, here is that video...
Enjoy. If you agree, disagree, or just have a comment in general, drop that in the comments section or on my Twitter account, @hoover__26. Thanks!
Another trait of a real pure point guard is "someone who can make every pass with ease". If you need proof that McConnell can do that, watch the video I will end this article with. If having the "ability to pass from anywhere, selective 3pt shooting and arsenal of mid range moves to get off shots" is also a key part, then McConnell fits that bill as well. He shot nearly 52% from within 16 feet last season, and despite being a solid long range shooter, attempted less than a fifth of his shots from long range. For reference, Kemba Walker (a career 33.4% three point shooter) has attempted more than 30% of his shots from three in his career. McConnell also has stats that top some of those "pure point guards" that were mentioned the most. McConnell finished 6th in the NBA in assists per 48 minutes, ahead of guys like Tony Parker, Damian Lillard, and Mike Conley. He also finished in the top 15 in assist/turnover ratio for point guards while guys like John Wall fell to the 20s. (courtesy of espn.com). McConnell also finished in the top 10 in assist percentage and finished above the Devensive Player of the Year Kawhi Leonard in steal percentage (basketball-reference.com). Sounds to me like McConnell's numbers and style fit perfectly with the "passing and defense" mold of a pure point guard. And if guys like CP3 and John Wall can be All-Stars and elite players, why not T.J.? Let's just say, for argument's sake, that McConnell continues to improve and eventually (say his 3rd or 4th season) gets in a situation where he is playing 28-32 minutes per game consistently. That's a feasible start to McConnell's career path, and it also happens to match Kyle Lowry's early career almost exactly. You can make the argument that McConnell was three years older than Lowry when he came into the league, but if you compare ages, you have to make a note of the following. Lowry averaged 13.5 points, 6.7 assists and 5.4 rebounds per 36 minutes in his age 23 season, with many years of NBA experience already. In McConnell's rookie season (also his age 23 season), he averaged 11.1 points, 8.2 assists and 5.6 rebounds per 36 minutes (courtesy of basketball-reference.com). If Lowry went on to be a an All-Star, what is stopping T.J. McConnell from ascending to that height?
Earlier in the article, I promised that I would show you a video that proves just how good T.J. McConnell has already become. Not being one to disappoint, here is that video...
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